**Trader consensus has converged on 26°C as the highest temperature in Chengdu on September 17, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from aggregated forecasts and early observations.** Multiple meteorological sources, including local reports and model outputs, indicate a daytime peak around 25–26°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain or drizzle possible, consistent with typical late-summer patterns in the Sichuan Basin where high humidity and weak winds limit stronger warming. This aligns with historical September averages near 25°C and recent days showing similar maxima amid stable atmospheric conditions. The market-implied probability exceeds 99% because official station readings or the resolution source are expected to confirm this threshold without significant deviation. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day surge from clearer skies or model error pushing the official high to 27°C or higher, though current data and timing make this highly unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 17?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 17?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$46,974 Vol.
$46,974 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$46,974 Vol.
$46,974 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
$4,189 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,480 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,542 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,003 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,613 Vol.
No
26°C
$9,049 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$7,673 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,788 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,962 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,080 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$596 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 26°C as the highest temperature in Chengdu on September 17, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from aggregated forecasts and early observations.** Multiple meteorological sources, including local reports and model outputs, indicate a daytime peak around 25–26°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain or drizzle possible, consistent with typical late-summer patterns in the Sichuan Basin where high humidity and weak winds limit stronger warming. This aligns with historical September averages near 25°C and recent days showing similar maxima amid stable atmospheric conditions. The market-implied probability exceeds 99% because official station readings or the resolution source are expected to confirm this threshold without significant deviation. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day surge from clearer skies or model error pushing the official high to 27°C or higher, though current data and timing make this highly unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$46,974End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 26°C as the highest temperature in Chengdu on September 17, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from aggregated forecasts and early observations.** Multiple meteorological sources, including local reports and model outputs, indicate a daytime peak around 25–26°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain or drizzle possible, consistent with typical late-summer patterns in the Sichuan Basin where high humidity and weak winds limit stronger warming. This aligns with historical September averages near 25°C and recent days showing similar maxima amid stable atmospheric conditions. The market-implied probability exceeds 99% because official station readings or the resolution source are expected to confirm this threshold without significant deviation. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day surge from clearer skies or model error pushing the official high to 27°C or higher, though current data and timing make this highly unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46,974End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has converged on 26°C as the highest temperature in Chengdu on September 17, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from aggregated forecasts and early observations.** Multiple meteorological sources, including local reports and model outputs, indicate a daytime peak around 25–26°C under partly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain or drizzle possible, consistent with typical late-summer patterns in the Sichuan Basin where high humidity and weak winds limit stronger warming. This aligns with historical September averages near 25°C and recent days showing similar maxima amid stable atmospheric conditions. The market-implied probability exceeds 99% because official station readings or the resolution source are expected to confirm this threshold without significant deviation. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day surge from clearer skies or model error pushing the official high to 27°C or higher, though current data and timing make this highly unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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