**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northerly flow have kept daytime heating minimal in Chengdu on September 14, 2026, supporting the market's near-certain pricing on a daily maximum of 22°C or below.** Official and model consensus across sources shows an overcast, rainy day with highs forecast between roughly 19–24°C (most clustered near or under 22°C), driven by light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80–95%. These conditions limit solar insolation and evaporative cooling, aligning with historical September patterns under similar synoptic setups where maxima rarely exceed early-20s Celsius. The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong trader confidence in official station readings (e.g., from China Meteorological Administration or equivalent) staying at or below the threshold, given converging forecasts and real-time observations around 19°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing that boosts insolation enough for a brief spike above 22°C, though current model agreement and ongoing rain make this low-probability before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 14?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 14?
22°C or below 100.0%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,531 Vol.
$42,531 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
22°C or below
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
22°C or below 100.0%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,531 Vol.
$42,531 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
22°C or below
$13,711 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$4,657 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,734 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,670 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,086 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,335 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,233 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,397 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,079 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,313 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,315 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northerly flow have kept daytime heating minimal in Chengdu on September 14, 2026, supporting the market's near-certain pricing on a daily maximum of 22°C or below.**
Official and model consensus across sources shows an overcast, rainy day with highs forecast between roughly 19–24°C (most clustered near or under 22°C), driven by light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80–95%. These conditions limit solar insolation and evaporative cooling, aligning with historical September patterns under similar synoptic setups where maxima rarely exceed early-20s Celsius.
The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong trader confidence in official station readings (e.g., from China Meteorological Administration or equivalent) staying at or below the threshold, given converging forecasts and real-time observations around 19°C.
A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing that boosts insolation enough for a brief spike above 22°C, though current model agreement and ongoing rain make this low-probability before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$42,531End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northerly flow have kept daytime heating minimal in Chengdu on September 14, 2026, supporting the market's near-certain pricing on a daily maximum of 22°C or below.**
Official and model consensus across sources shows an overcast, rainy day with highs forecast between roughly 19–24°C (most clustered near or under 22°C), driven by light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80–95%. These conditions limit solar insolation and evaporative cooling, aligning with historical September patterns under similar synoptic setups where maxima rarely exceed early-20s Celsius.
The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong trader confidence in official station readings (e.g., from China Meteorological Administration or equivalent) staying at or below the threshold, given converging forecasts and real-time observations around 19°C.
A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing that boosts insolation enough for a brief spike above 22°C, though current model agreement and ongoing rain make this low-probability before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,531End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northerly flow have kept daytime heating minimal in Chengdu on September 14, 2026, supporting the market's near-certain pricing on a daily maximum of 22°C or below.** Official and model consensus across sources shows an overcast, rainy day with highs forecast between roughly 19–24°C (most clustered near or under 22°C), driven by light northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80–95%. These conditions limit solar insolation and evaporative cooling, aligning with historical September patterns under similar synoptic setups where maxima rarely exceed early-20s Celsius. The 100% market-implied probability reflects strong trader confidence in official station readings (e.g., from China Meteorological Administration or equivalent) staying at or below the threshold, given converging forecasts and real-time observations around 19°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing that boosts insolation enough for a brief spike above 22°C, though current model agreement and ongoing rain make this low-probability before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions