Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus position Austin’s September 23 high temperature in the upper 90s, with most runs indicating 97–100 °F under mostly sunny skies and light easterly flow. Limited afternoon convective chances are expected to have minimal impact on the daily maximum, while elevated dew points will support heat indices near 105–106 °F. The market’s heavy weighting toward 96–99 °F brackets reflects this stable forecast pattern, with only modest uncertainty from possible small timing shifts in cloud cover or isolated showers. Updated model runs and the NWS evening forecast discussion on September 22 represent the final major inputs before tomorrow’s official observations determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 23?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 23?
96-97°F 52%
98-99°F 41%
94-95°F 5%
100-101°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
52%
98-99°F
41%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 52%
98-99°F 41%
94-95°F 5%
100-101°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
89°F or below
$104 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$116 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$347 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$201 Vol.
5%
96-97°F
$1,600 Vol.
52%
98-99°F
$213 Vol.
41%
100-101°F
$296 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$77 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$428 Vol.
1%
106-107°F
$95 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus position Austin’s September 23 high temperature in the upper 90s, with most runs indicating 97–100 °F under mostly sunny skies and light easterly flow. Limited afternoon convective chances are expected to have minimal impact on the daily maximum, while elevated dew points will support heat indices near 105–106 °F. The market’s heavy weighting toward 96–99 °F brackets reflects this stable forecast pattern, with only modest uncertainty from possible small timing shifts in cloud cover or isolated showers. Updated model runs and the NWS evening forecast discussion on September 22 represent the final major inputs before tomorrow’s official observations determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,571End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus position Austin’s September 23 high temperature in the upper 90s, with most runs indicating 97–100 °F under mostly sunny skies and light easterly flow. Limited afternoon convective chances are expected to have minimal impact on the daily maximum, while elevated dew points will support heat indices near 105–106 °F. The market’s heavy weighting toward 96–99 °F brackets reflects this stable forecast pattern, with only modest uncertainty from possible small timing shifts in cloud cover or isolated showers. Updated model runs and the NWS evening forecast discussion on September 22 represent the final major inputs before tomorrow’s official observations determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,571End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus position Austin’s September 23 high temperature in the upper 90s, with most runs indicating 97–100 °F under mostly sunny skies and light easterly flow. Limited afternoon convective chances are expected to have minimal impact on the daily maximum, while elevated dew points will support heat indices near 105–106 °F. The market’s heavy weighting toward 96–99 °F brackets reflects this stable forecast pattern, with only modest uncertainty from possible small timing shifts in cloud cover or isolated showers. Updated model runs and the NWS evening forecast discussion on September 22 represent the final major inputs before tomorrow’s official observations determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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