Strong containment efforts, the Bundibugyo virus's requirement for direct contact with infected bodily fluids, and limited exportation risk outside Africa underpin the 97% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. As of early September, the DRC outbreak has produced roughly 6,600 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths across six provinces, qualifying as the country's largest and a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern, yet only isolated cases have reached Uganda and Europe with no sustained community transmission elsewhere. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows most new chains arise locally amid insecurity and displacement, while historical patterns and low intercontinental risk (under 0.2 cases per 1,000 African cases since 2000) support containment. Realistic shifts could occur if response gaps allow wider seeding in high-mobility areas or if model projections of 10,000+ cases materialize without rapid intervention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3% chance
$759,602 Vol.
$759,602 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$759,602 Vol.
$759,602 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment efforts, the Bundibugyo virus's requirement for direct contact with infected bodily fluids, and limited exportation risk outside Africa underpin the 97% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. As of early September, the DRC outbreak has produced roughly 6,600 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths across six provinces, qualifying as the country's largest and a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern, yet only isolated cases have reached Uganda and Europe with no sustained community transmission elsewhere. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows most new chains arise locally amid insecurity and displacement, while historical patterns and low intercontinental risk (under 0.2 cases per 1,000 African cases since 2000) support containment. Realistic shifts could occur if response gaps allow wider seeding in high-mobility areas or if model projections of 10,000+ cases materialize without rapid intervention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$759,602End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment efforts, the Bundibugyo virus's requirement for direct contact with infected bodily fluids, and limited exportation risk outside Africa underpin the 97% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. As of early September, the DRC outbreak has produced roughly 6,600 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths across six provinces, qualifying as the country's largest and a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern, yet only isolated cases have reached Uganda and Europe with no sustained community transmission elsewhere. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows most new chains arise locally amid insecurity and displacement, while historical patterns and low intercontinental risk (under 0.2 cases per 1,000 African cases since 2000) support containment. Realistic shifts could occur if response gaps allow wider seeding in high-mobility areas or if model projections of 10,000+ cases materialize without rapid intervention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$759,602End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong containment efforts, the Bundibugyo virus's requirement for direct contact with infected bodily fluids, and limited exportation risk outside Africa underpin the 97% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. As of early September, the DRC outbreak has produced roughly 6,600 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths across six provinces, qualifying as the country's largest and a WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern, yet only isolated cases have reached Uganda and Europe with no sustained community transmission elsewhere. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows most new chains arise locally amid insecurity and displacement, while historical patterns and low intercontinental risk (under 0.2 cases per 1,000 African cases since 2000) support containment. Realistic shifts could occur if response gaps allow wider seeding in high-mobility areas or if model projections of 10,000+ cases materialize without rapid intervention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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