President Trump’s October 15 announcement extending the U.S.-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, paired with his explicit pledge of no U.S. attacks before the November 3 midterms, has anchored recent diplomatic momentum. Negotiators reached a 60-day interim accord in mid-October to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, suspend hostilities, and address Iran’s nuclear program through mediators including Qatar and Pakistan. Earlier June understandings had already paused major strikes, though disputes over sanctions relief, blockades, and compliance persist. These verified commitments and ongoing talks through election day underpin trader consensus that the ceasefire will hold, while leaving room for shifts if nuclear or Hormuz talks collapse after the vote.