Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, installing an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, completing the transition amid wartime disruptions that eliminated several other candidates and clerics. Trader consensus reflects this rapid resolution, tempered by Mojtaba’s limited public role, reported injuries, and the emergence of collective decision-making involving the IRGC and senior officials. Ongoing military operations, sanctions pressure, and institutional power shifts remain key variables that could influence further leadership stability or adjustments within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,153,294 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
October 31
6%
November 30
9%
December 31
14%
June 30, 2027
28%
$25,153,294 Vol.
September 30
$1,031,830 Vol.
2%
October 31
$71,772 Vol.
6%
November 30
$36,648 Vol.
9%
December 31
$4,435,377 Vol.
14%
June 30, 2027
$290,529 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, installing an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, completing the transition amid wartime disruptions that eliminated several other candidates and clerics. Trader consensus reflects this rapid resolution, tempered by Mojtaba’s limited public role, reported injuries, and the emergence of collective decision-making involving the IRGC and senior officials. Ongoing military operations, sanctions pressure, and institutional power shifts remain key variables that could influence further leadership stability or adjustments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Volume
$25,153,294End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, installing an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, completing the transition amid wartime disruptions that eliminated several other candidates and clerics. Trader consensus reflects this rapid resolution, tempered by Mojtaba’s limited public role, reported injuries, and the emergence of collective decision-making involving the IRGC and senior officials. Ongoing military operations, sanctions pressure, and institutional power shifts remain key variables that could influence further leadership stability or adjustments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,153,294End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, installing an interim council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council cleric. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, completing the transition amid wartime disruptions that eliminated several other candidates and clerics. Trader consensus reflects this rapid resolution, tempered by Mojtaba’s limited public role, reported injuries, and the emergence of collective decision-making involving the IRGC and senior officials. Ongoing military operations, sanctions pressure, and institutional power shifts remain key variables that could influence further leadership stability or adjustments within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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