The competitive U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, alongside an open governor’s race, has elevated expectations for November general election participation under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system. Traders have converged on the 290K-305K range as the most probable initial-round turnout, reflecting roughly 48-51% of the state’s approximately 602,000 registered voters. This positioning draws from the August primary’s unusually high 167,000 ballots cast—27.7% participation and one of the strongest midterm primaries in over a decade—driven by the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate race’s status as a toss-up or lean-Republican battleground. Without a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, turnout is projected well above primary levels yet below 2024 general election figures, with recent developments such as Trump’s planned campaign visit and ballot stabilization after candidate withdrawals reinforcing moderate-to-high engagement scenarios around the leading range.