Republican control of the House through the November 2026 midterms forms the central barrier to impeachment by December 31, 2026. With a narrow GOP majority currently in place, articles introduced by Democrats have remained tabled without floor action, and cross-party support has not emerged. Midterm results, even if they produce a Democratic majority, would not take effect until the new Congress convenes in January 2027, leaving no procedural window for organization or votes before the market resolves. Trader consensus at 98.3% on “No” reflects these institutional timelines and the absence of bipartisan momentum. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal prompting Republican defections or an accelerated bipartisan coalition could still shift the outcome before year-end.