Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole remarks established the dominant catalyst for the September FOMC press conference, warning that underlying inflation has not improved meaningfully and that policymakers have “work to do” if price pressures fail to moderate at sufficient speed toward the 2% PCE target. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, recent PCE readings at 3.7% year-over-year and 4.1% on a six-month basis, and inflation above target for 65 consecutive months, trader attention centers on whether Warsh signals readiness for a hike or conditions any move on the August CPI release due September 11. Other officials’ comments have tempered market-implied odds of a September tightening, which rose above 50% after the speech but remain data-dependent ahead of the September 15–16 meeting.