Bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Mexico continues without any authorization, troop mobilization, or official statements indicating a full-scale invasion. Recent developments include Mexico's Senate approving limited U.S. military training exercises in Chihuahua through September 2026, alongside ongoing intelligence sharing and deportation coordination under the Trump administration. Designations of certain cartels as foreign terrorist organizations have prompted Pentagon planning for targeted operations against drug networks, yet Mexican officials have repeatedly ruled out unilateral U.S. ground incursions, citing sovereignty. Trader consensus at 98.2% reflects these structural barriers, including diplomatic costs, lack of congressional backing, and focus on joint enforcement rather than territorial conflict. Late-year escalation in cartel violence or abrupt breakdown in talks could still shift probabilities, though no such triggers have materialized.