Ongoing missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies like Hezbollah have driven repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings through mid-2026, with the most recent ceasefire breakdown in July prompting fresh Iranian strikes and U.S. involvement. EASA's August 31 information note, valid through September 30, highlights ballistic missile risks over the Tel Aviv FIR, while aviation authorities assessed immediate Ben Gurion restrictions amid early September launches. Traders assign high implied probability to a major closure by late September because official Israeli decisions on civilian operations remain tied to real-time security assessments amid volatile regional exchanges. Partial flight activity continues under caution advisories, but broad suspensions have occurred during prior escalations. Key upcoming factors include any further Iranian or proxy attacks before the resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Israel cierra su espacio aéreo por...?
¿Israel cierra su espacio aéreo por...?
$30,507,573 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
97%
$30,507,573 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$2,914,415 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies like Hezbollah have driven repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings through mid-2026, with the most recent ceasefire breakdown in July prompting fresh Iranian strikes and U.S. involvement. EASA's August 31 information note, valid through September 30, highlights ballistic missile risks over the Tel Aviv FIR, while aviation authorities assessed immediate Ben Gurion restrictions amid early September launches. Traders assign high implied probability to a major closure by late September because official Israeli decisions on civilian operations remain tied to real-time security assessments amid volatile regional exchanges. Partial flight activity continues under caution advisories, but broad suspensions have occurred during prior escalations. Key upcoming factors include any further Iranian or proxy attacks before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volumen
$30,507,573Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies like Hezbollah have driven repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings through mid-2026, with the most recent ceasefire breakdown in July prompting fresh Iranian strikes and U.S. involvement. EASA's August 31 information note, valid through September 30, highlights ballistic missile risks over the Tel Aviv FIR, while aviation authorities assessed immediate Ben Gurion restrictions amid early September launches. Traders assign high implied probability to a major closure by late September because official Israeli decisions on civilian operations remain tied to real-time security assessments amid volatile regional exchanges. Partial flight activity continues under caution advisories, but broad suspensions have occurred during prior escalations. Key upcoming factors include any further Iranian or proxy attacks before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$30,507,573Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies like Hezbollah have driven repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings through mid-2026, with the most recent ceasefire breakdown in July prompting fresh Iranian strikes and U.S. involvement. EASA's August 31 information note, valid through September 30, highlights ballistic missile risks over the Tel Aviv FIR, while aviation authorities assessed immediate Ben Gurion restrictions amid early September launches. Traders assign high implied probability to a major closure by late September because official Israeli decisions on civilian operations remain tied to real-time security assessments amid volatile regional exchanges. Partial flight activity continues under caution advisories, but broad suspensions have occurred during prior escalations. Key upcoming factors include any further Iranian or proxy attacks before the resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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