Iranian parliamentary figures have recently advanced fast-tracked proposals and statements describing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as attainable amid IAEA Board resolutions citing safeguards noncompliance and referral to the UN Security Council. President Masoud Pezeshkian has reaffirmed Tehran's commitment to the treaty and international obligations, while senior officials frame exit threats primarily as responses to perceived politicized IAEA actions and prior military strikes on nuclear sites. Formal withdrawal under Article X requires Supreme National Security Council approval, a supreme national interest declaration, and 90 days' notice to the UN—steps not yet completed despite earlier 2026 legislative drafts. Traders therefore assign an 86.4% implied probability against exit before 2027, reflecting that rhetoric has not translated into binding action amid ongoing diplomatic channels and verification disputes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?
¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?
Sí
14% probabilidad
$550,730 Vol.
$550,730 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
14% probabilidad
$550,730 Vol.
$550,730 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian parliamentary figures have recently advanced fast-tracked proposals and statements describing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as attainable amid IAEA Board resolutions citing safeguards noncompliance and referral to the UN Security Council. President Masoud Pezeshkian has reaffirmed Tehran's commitment to the treaty and international obligations, while senior officials frame exit threats primarily as responses to perceived politicized IAEA actions and prior military strikes on nuclear sites. Formal withdrawal under Article X requires Supreme National Security Council approval, a supreme national interest declaration, and 90 days' notice to the UN—steps not yet completed despite earlier 2026 legislative drafts. Traders therefore assign an 86.4% implied probability against exit before 2027, reflecting that rhetoric has not translated into binding action amid ongoing diplomatic channels and verification disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volumen
$550,730Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian parliamentary figures have recently advanced fast-tracked proposals and statements describing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as attainable amid IAEA Board resolutions citing safeguards noncompliance and referral to the UN Security Council. President Masoud Pezeshkian has reaffirmed Tehran's commitment to the treaty and international obligations, while senior officials frame exit threats primarily as responses to perceived politicized IAEA actions and prior military strikes on nuclear sites. Formal withdrawal under Article X requires Supreme National Security Council approval, a supreme national interest declaration, and 90 days' notice to the UN—steps not yet completed despite earlier 2026 legislative drafts. Traders therefore assign an 86.4% implied probability against exit before 2027, reflecting that rhetoric has not translated into binding action amid ongoing diplomatic channels and verification disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$550,730Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian parliamentary figures have recently advanced fast-tracked proposals and statements describing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as attainable amid IAEA Board resolutions citing safeguards noncompliance and referral to the UN Security Council. President Masoud Pezeshkian has reaffirmed Tehran's commitment to the treaty and international obligations, while senior officials frame exit threats primarily as responses to perceived politicized IAEA actions and prior military strikes on nuclear sites. Formal withdrawal under Article X requires Supreme National Security Council approval, a supreme national interest declaration, and 90 days' notice to the UN—steps not yet completed despite earlier 2026 legislative drafts. Traders therefore assign an 86.4% implied probability against exit before 2027, reflecting that rhetoric has not translated into binding action amid ongoing diplomatic channels and verification disputes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes