Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" refers to the next frontier large language model following the Muse Spark series (previously codenamed Avocado), which launched in April 2026. In a July 2026 town hall, Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang stated that the still-in-training model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute, with a subsequent August report citing internal documents targeting an October release alongside the consumer AI agent "Hatch." Recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates emphasize coding and agentic capabilities, reflecting Meta's push to narrow the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic amid $125–145 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending. Trader sentiment hinges on whether Meta meets the October window or experiences typical frontier-model delays, with resolution criteria likely tied to public availability or official confirmation of the full-scale release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$12,303 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
5%
31 de octubre
74%
30 de noviembre
93%
$12,303 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$3,394 Vol.
5%
31 de octubre
$6,384 Vol.
74%
30 de noviembre
$2,524 Vol.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" refers to the next frontier large language model following the Muse Spark series (previously codenamed Avocado), which launched in April 2026. In a July 2026 town hall, Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang stated that the still-in-training model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute, with a subsequent August report citing internal documents targeting an October release alongside the consumer AI agent "Hatch." Recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates emphasize coding and agentic capabilities, reflecting Meta's push to narrow the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic amid $125–145 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending. Trader sentiment hinges on whether Meta meets the October window or experiences typical frontier-model delays, with resolution criteria likely tied to public availability or official confirmation of the full-scale release.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$12,303Fecha de finalización
30 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" refers to the next frontier large language model following the Muse Spark series (previously codenamed Avocado), which launched in April 2026. In a July 2026 town hall, Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang stated that the still-in-training model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute, with a subsequent August report citing internal documents targeting an October release alongside the consumer AI agent "Hatch." Recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates emphasize coding and agentic capabilities, reflecting Meta's push to narrow the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic amid $125–145 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending. Trader sentiment hinges on whether Meta meets the October window or experiences typical frontier-model delays, with resolution criteria likely tied to public availability or official confirmation of the full-scale release.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$12,303Fecha de finalización
30 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" refers to the next frontier large language model following the Muse Spark series (previously codenamed Avocado), which launched in April 2026. In a July 2026 town hall, Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang stated that the still-in-training model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks while using an order of magnitude more compute, with a subsequent August report citing internal documents targeting an October release alongside the consumer AI agent "Hatch." Recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates emphasize coding and agentic capabilities, reflecting Meta's push to narrow the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic amid $125–145 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending. Trader sentiment hinges on whether Meta meets the October window or experiences typical frontier-model delays, with resolution criteria likely tied to public availability or official confirmation of the full-scale release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes