Anthropic’s Claude family, especially the early-September releases of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 88.5% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards on reasoning, coding (SWE-bench, Terminal-Bench), and composite intelligence indices as of mid-September 2026. Traders see sustained frontier leadership from these large language models over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants, which trail on key verified benchmarks despite competitive context windows and pricing. Low single-digit odds for OpenAI, Google, Meta, and others reflect recent release timing and capability gaps, while the cluster of 50% options signals uncertainty around lesser-tracked labs. With October resolution approaching, further benchmark updates or safety-related delays remain the main swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 89%
Google 8.0%
OpenAI 2.2%
Meta 1.6%
$349,403 Vol.
$349,403 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
89%
8%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 8.0%
OpenAI 2.2%
Meta 1.6%
$349,403 Vol.
$349,403 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$68,012 Vol.
89%
$35,740 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$34,816 Vol.
2%
Meta
$33,783 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$26,360 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$21,484 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$25,280 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$23,211 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$26,325 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$20,677 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,885 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude family, especially the early-September releases of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 88.5% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards on reasoning, coding (SWE-bench, Terminal-Bench), and composite intelligence indices as of mid-September 2026. Traders see sustained frontier leadership from these large language models over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants, which trail on key verified benchmarks despite competitive context windows and pricing. Low single-digit odds for OpenAI, Google, Meta, and others reflect recent release timing and capability gaps, while the cluster of 50% options signals uncertainty around lesser-tracked labs. With October resolution approaching, further benchmark updates or safety-related delays remain the main swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$349,403Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude family, especially the early-September releases of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 88.5% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards on reasoning, coding (SWE-bench, Terminal-Bench), and composite intelligence indices as of mid-September 2026. Traders see sustained frontier leadership from these large language models over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants, which trail on key verified benchmarks despite competitive context windows and pricing. Low single-digit odds for OpenAI, Google, Meta, and others reflect recent release timing and capability gaps, while the cluster of 50% options signals uncertainty around lesser-tracked labs. With October resolution approaching, further benchmark updates or safety-related delays remain the main swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$349,403Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude family, especially the early-September releases of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 88.5% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards on reasoning, coding (SWE-bench, Terminal-Bench), and composite intelligence indices as of mid-September 2026. Traders see sustained frontier leadership from these large language models over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants, which trail on key verified benchmarks despite competitive context windows and pricing. Low single-digit odds for OpenAI, Google, Meta, and others reflect recent release timing and capability gaps, while the cluster of 50% options signals uncertainty around lesser-tracked labs. With October resolution approaching, further benchmark updates or safety-related delays remain the main swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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