Recent National Snow and Ice Data Center analyses show Arctic sea ice extent tracking toward a typical post-2010 September minimum after early-summer melt rates briefly approached 2012 levels. Persistent low-pressure systems, increased cloud cover, and cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures through August slowed ice loss, producing an August average of 5.56 million square kilometers—seventh lowest on record. This weather-driven moderation, following a low March maximum and thin first-year ice dominance, has shifted trader consensus toward the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the most probable outcome. NSIDC and Sea Ice Outlook estimates place the 2026 minimum near 4.6–4.8 million square kilometers, consistent with the post-2007 range of 3.99–5.68 million square kilometers. The market-implied odds reflect updated model consensus and observed melt deceleration ahead of the mid-September minimum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 78.3%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 18.9%
<4 millones km² 1.5%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 1.4%
$78,113 Vol.
$78,113 Vol.
30 sep 2026
<4 millones km²
2%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
1%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
17%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
69%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
1%
4.8-5 millones de km²
1%
5+ millones de km²
<1%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 78.3%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 18.9%
<4 millones km² 1.5%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 1.4%
$78,113 Vol.
$78,113 Vol.
30 sep 2026
<4 millones km²
$33,489 Vol.
2%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$7,400 Vol.
1%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$3,682 Vol.
17%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$4,039 Vol.
69%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$10,207 Vol.
1%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$4,284 Vol.
1%
5+ millones de km²
$15,013 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent National Snow and Ice Data Center analyses show Arctic sea ice extent tracking toward a typical post-2010 September minimum after early-summer melt rates briefly approached 2012 levels. Persistent low-pressure systems, increased cloud cover, and cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures through August slowed ice loss, producing an August average of 5.56 million square kilometers—seventh lowest on record. This weather-driven moderation, following a low March maximum and thin first-year ice dominance, has shifted trader consensus toward the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the most probable outcome. NSIDC and Sea Ice Outlook estimates place the 2026 minimum near 4.6–4.8 million square kilometers, consistent with the post-2007 range of 3.99–5.68 million square kilometers. The market-implied odds reflect updated model consensus and observed melt deceleration ahead of the mid-September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$78,113Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent National Snow and Ice Data Center analyses show Arctic sea ice extent tracking toward a typical post-2010 September minimum after early-summer melt rates briefly approached 2012 levels. Persistent low-pressure systems, increased cloud cover, and cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures through August slowed ice loss, producing an August average of 5.56 million square kilometers—seventh lowest on record. This weather-driven moderation, following a low March maximum and thin first-year ice dominance, has shifted trader consensus toward the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the most probable outcome. NSIDC and Sea Ice Outlook estimates place the 2026 minimum near 4.6–4.8 million square kilometers, consistent with the post-2007 range of 3.99–5.68 million square kilometers. The market-implied odds reflect updated model consensus and observed melt deceleration ahead of the mid-September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$78,113Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent National Snow and Ice Data Center analyses show Arctic sea ice extent tracking toward a typical post-2010 September minimum after early-summer melt rates briefly approached 2012 levels. Persistent low-pressure systems, increased cloud cover, and cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures through August slowed ice loss, producing an August average of 5.56 million square kilometers—seventh lowest on record. This weather-driven moderation, following a low March maximum and thin first-year ice dominance, has shifted trader consensus toward the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the most probable outcome. NSIDC and Sea Ice Outlook estimates place the 2026 minimum near 4.6–4.8 million square kilometers, consistent with the post-2007 range of 3.99–5.68 million square kilometers. The market-implied odds reflect updated model consensus and observed melt deceleration ahead of the mid-September minimum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes