Recent official analyses confirm August 2026 as the warmest or joint-warmest month on record, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to record highs. This combination produced land and ocean anomalies aligning closely with the narrow 1.38–1.41°C market bin, consistent with multiple agency baselines and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Final dataset revisions or inter-agency differences in processing could still shift the precise reported value, though current model consensus and observations strongly support the dominant outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAgosto 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC) (HUELGAS MÁS ALTAS)
Agosto 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC) (HUELGAS MÁS ALTAS)
1.38–1.41ºC 98.4%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
98%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.4%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 Vol.
98%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,267 Vol.
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent official analyses confirm August 2026 as the warmest or joint-warmest month on record, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to record highs. This combination produced land and ocean anomalies aligning closely with the narrow 1.38–1.41°C market bin, consistent with multiple agency baselines and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Final dataset revisions or inter-agency differences in processing could still shift the precise reported value, though current model consensus and observations strongly support the dominant outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volumen
$20,755Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent official analyses confirm August 2026 as the warmest or joint-warmest month on record, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to record highs. This combination produced land and ocean anomalies aligning closely with the narrow 1.38–1.41°C market bin, consistent with multiple agency baselines and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Final dataset revisions or inter-agency differences in processing could still shift the precise reported value, though current model consensus and observations strongly support the dominant outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$20,755Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official analyses confirm August 2026 as the warmest or joint-warmest month on record, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to record highs. This combination produced land and ocean anomalies aligning closely with the narrow 1.38–1.41°C market bin, consistent with multiple agency baselines and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Final dataset revisions or inter-agency differences in processing could still shift the precise reported value, though current model consensus and observations strongly support the dominant outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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