Traders assign a 98% implied probability to no human moon landing occurring in 2026 because NASA’s Artemis program—the primary pathway for crewed lunar return—has shifted its first landing target to Artemis IV in 2028. Artemis III, now slated for a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration of docking with Starship or Blue Moon landers, was explicitly restructured in February 2026 to prioritize risk reduction after persistent delays in Human Landing System development, SLS stacking, and Orion heat shield fixes. Artemis II’s successful April 2026 circumlunar flight confirmed the current cadence leaves insufficient time for a 2026 surface mission, while uncrewed CLPS and Chinese robotic efforts remain non-crewed. Near-term catalysts such as further lander test failures or regulatory reviews could only reinforce the existing timeline rather than compress it into the final months of 2026.