Trader consensus heavily favors no 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 95.6% implied probability due to the events' documented rarity in USGS global catalogs, which record only a handful since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. With roughly four months left in the resolution window through December 2026, base rates of one to three such quakes per century translate to low odds of occurrence. Recent seismic activity, including the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka event and scattered M7+ quakes in 2026, has not approached megathrust thresholds on major subduction zones. While accelerated strain accumulation or unexpected multi-segment rupture on faults like Cascadia could still trigger one, current monitoring shows no such precursors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$318,222 Vol.
$318,222 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$318,222 Vol.
$318,222 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors no 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 95.6% implied probability due to the events' documented rarity in USGS global catalogs, which record only a handful since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. With roughly four months left in the resolution window through December 2026, base rates of one to three such quakes per century translate to low odds of occurrence. Recent seismic activity, including the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka event and scattered M7+ quakes in 2026, has not approached megathrust thresholds on major subduction zones. While accelerated strain accumulation or unexpected multi-segment rupture on faults like Cascadia could still trigger one, current monitoring shows no such precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$318,222Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors no 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 95.6% implied probability due to the events' documented rarity in USGS global catalogs, which record only a handful since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. With roughly four months left in the resolution window through December 2026, base rates of one to three such quakes per century translate to low odds of occurrence. Recent seismic activity, including the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka event and scattered M7+ quakes in 2026, has not approached megathrust thresholds on major subduction zones. While accelerated strain accumulation or unexpected multi-segment rupture on faults like Cascadia could still trigger one, current monitoring shows no such precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$318,222Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 at 95.6% implied probability due to the events' documented rarity in USGS global catalogs, which record only a handful since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. With roughly four months left in the resolution window through December 2026, base rates of one to three such quakes per century translate to low odds of occurrence. Recent seismic activity, including the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka event and scattered M7+ quakes in 2026, has not approached megathrust thresholds on major subduction zones. While accelerated strain accumulation or unexpected multi-segment rupture on faults like Cascadia could still trigger one, current monitoring shows no such precursors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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