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icon for ¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?
Política·Israel

¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?

icon for ¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?
Política·Israel

¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?

ene 1, 2027

ene 1, 2027

4 75.9%

5 15.0%

6 3.8%

7 2.1%

Polymarket

$7,566,260 Vol.

4 75.9%

5 15.0%

6 3.8%

7 2.1%

Polymarket

$7,566,260 Vol.

4

$1,369,311 Vol.

76%

5

$549,140 Vol.

15%

6

$652,708 Vol.

4%

7

$619,500 Vol.

2%

8

$531,166 Vol.

1%

9

$237,663 Vol.

1%

10

$401,525 Vol.

2%

11

$143,496 Vol.

<1%

12

$229,247 Vol.

1%

13

$355,430 Vol.

<1%

14

$192,781 Vol.

1%

15+

$195,787 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly four countries (75.7%), with five a distant second (15.0%).** This positioning reflects Israel's confirmed direct strikes or military operations in 2026 against Iran (major airstrikes beginning 28 February as part of the 2026 Iran war, with follow-on waves in March and June), Lebanon (ground operations and repeated airstrikes against Hezbollah targets from early March onward, including southern Lebanon advances), Syria (airstrikes reported in March amid Druze clashes and related spillover), and Yemen (strikes tied to Houthi involvement in the broader conflict). No verified Israeli strikes have targeted additional sovereign states in 2026, and activity has de-escalated since the June exchanges and subsequent pullbacks, with limited ongoing operations focused on existing theaters. The remaining months of the year offer few scheduled catalysts likely to expand the scope, supporting the market's concentration on four as the most probable total while leaving modest room for one additional target if tensions flare again.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,566,260
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly four countries (75.7%), with five a distant second (15.0%).** This positioning reflects Israel's confirmed direct strikes or military operations in 2026 against Iran (major airstrikes beginning 28 February as part of the 2026 Iran war, with follow-on waves in March and June), Lebanon (ground operations and repeated airstrikes against Hezbollah targets from early March onward, including southern Lebanon advances), Syria (airstrikes reported in March amid Druze clashes and related spillover), and Yemen (strikes tied to Houthi involvement in the broader conflict). No verified Israeli strikes have targeted additional sovereign states in 2026, and activity has de-escalated since the June exchanges and subsequent pullbacks, with limited ongoing operations focused on existing theaters. The remaining months of the year offer few scheduled catalysts likely to expand the scope, supporting the market's concentration on four as the most probable total while leaving modest room for one additional target if tensions flare again.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$7,566,260
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 16 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "4" con 76%, seguido de "5" con 15%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 76¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?" ha generado $7.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 13, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?", explora los 16 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?" es "4" con 76%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "5" con 15%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.