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icon for ¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?

¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?

icon for ¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?

¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?

8 65.7%

9 29.1%

10 3.1%

11 1.9%

Polymarket

$1,657,213 Vol.

8 65.7%

9 29.1%

10 3.1%

11 1.9%

Polymarket

$1,657,213 Vol.

icon for 8

8

$319,245 Vol.

66%

icon for 9

9

$78,024 Vol.

29%

icon for 10

10

$29,925 Vol.

3%

icon for 11

11

$28,486 Vol.

2%

icon for 12

12

$50,148 Vol.

1%

icon for 13

13

$102,384 Vol.

1%

icon for 14

14

$152,050 Vol.

<1%

icon for 15+

15+

$130,797 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US military actions in 2026 have centered on sustained operations against Iran and a large-scale counter-narcotics campaign targeting vessels linked to Venezuela and other Latin American networks, alongside continued strikes against ISIS and affiliated groups in Syria and Nigeria.** Recent September 2026 US airstrikes on IRGC targets in southern Iran, including air defenses, radar, maritime assets, and oil tankers, represent the latest escalation in an intermittent conflict that has involved multiple waves of strikes since early in the year. Parallel operations under initiatives like Operation Southern Spear have included dozens of boat strikes in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific plus at least one confirmed land strike inside Venezuela, following the January capture of its president. Additional actions have hit targets in Syria and Nigeria. These developments, concentrated in the Middle East and Western Hemisphere, have shaped trader consensus around eight or nine distinct countries by mid-September, with limited room for further additions before year-end absent major new theaters. Ongoing regional tensions and counter-drug efforts remain the primary variables that could influence the final count.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,657,213
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US military actions in 2026 have centered on sustained operations against Iran and a large-scale counter-narcotics campaign targeting vessels linked to Venezuela and other Latin American networks, alongside continued strikes against ISIS and affiliated groups in Syria and Nigeria.** Recent September 2026 US airstrikes on IRGC targets in southern Iran, including air defenses, radar, maritime assets, and oil tankers, represent the latest escalation in an intermittent conflict that has involved multiple waves of strikes since early in the year. Parallel operations under initiatives like Operation Southern Spear have included dozens of boat strikes in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific plus at least one confirmed land strike inside Venezuela, following the January capture of its president. Additional actions have hit targets in Syria and Nigeria. These developments, concentrated in the Middle East and Western Hemisphere, have shaped trader consensus around eight or nine distinct countries by mid-September, with limited room for further additions before year-end absent major new theaters. Ongoing regional tensions and counter-drug efforts remain the primary variables that could influence the final count.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,657,213
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 16 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "8" con 66%, seguido de "9" con 29%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 66¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 66% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?" ha generado $1.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 13, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?", explora los 16 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?" es "8" con 66%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 66% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "9" con 29%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.