**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes and the brief remaining window through December 31, 2026.** USGS historical records show only a handful of such events since 1900, with recurrence intervals on major subduction zones typically spanning decades to centuries; the most recent confirmed M9+ was the 2011 Tohoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has included an 8.8 off Kamchatka and several M7+ quakes but nothing approaching the threshold. Megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers of locked fault, a process not indicated by current GNSS strain data or official monitoring. With roughly 3.5 months left, the base rate strongly supports the market-implied odds. Realistic tail risks include an unforeseen cascade on high-strain segments such as Cascadia or Nankai, where paleoseismic evidence shows past full-margin events, though model consensus and observational data place such outcomes well below 10% probability in this compressed timeframe.