Trump's established role as president after the 2024 election, ongoing policy implementation, and absence of public signals or institutional pressures indicating departure underpin the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. Historical precedent shows voluntary exits remain rare for U.S. presidents and typically require extraordinary catalysts such as severe legal exposure or incapacity. Traders' consensus aligns with this baseline, factoring in the president's focus on legislative and executive priorities through the midterms. Even so, developments like sudden health events, major scandals triggering bipartisan congressional action, or personal circumstances could still shift assessments within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
4% Chance
$538,774 Vol.
$538,774 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
4% Chance
$538,774 Vol.
$538,774 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's established role as president after the 2024 election, ongoing policy implementation, and absence of public signals or institutional pressures indicating departure underpin the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. Historical precedent shows voluntary exits remain rare for U.S. presidents and typically require extraordinary catalysts such as severe legal exposure or incapacity. Traders' consensus aligns with this baseline, factoring in the president's focus on legislative and executive priorities through the midterms. Even so, developments like sudden health events, major scandals triggering bipartisan congressional action, or personal circumstances could still shift assessments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volumen
$538,774Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETAbwickler
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's established role as president after the 2024 election, ongoing policy implementation, and absence of public signals or institutional pressures indicating departure underpin the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. Historical precedent shows voluntary exits remain rare for U.S. presidents and typically require extraordinary catalysts such as severe legal exposure or incapacity. Traders' consensus aligns with this baseline, factoring in the president's focus on legislative and executive priorities through the midterms. Even so, developments like sudden health events, major scandals triggering bipartisan congressional action, or personal circumstances could still shift assessments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$538,774Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETAbwickler
0x157Ce2d67...Trump's established role as president after the 2024 election, ongoing policy implementation, and absence of public signals or institutional pressures indicating departure underpin the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. Historical precedent shows voluntary exits remain rare for U.S. presidents and typically require extraordinary catalysts such as severe legal exposure or incapacity. Traders' consensus aligns with this baseline, factoring in the president's focus on legislative and executive priorities through the midterms. Even so, developments like sudden health events, major scandals triggering bipartisan congressional action, or personal circumstances could still shift assessments within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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