**RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary with strong ongoing White House alignment more than a year into the role.** As of September 2026, he continues directing agency staffing increases in political appointees, MAHA-focused policy revisions on vaccines, food safety, and chronic disease, plus fiscal year 2026 budget testimony before Congress. Recent leadership reorganizations and public announcements show active engagement rather than any exit signals. Democratic calls for resignation and external criticism over agency changes have not altered presidential support or produced procedural moves toward removal. Traders price the low likelihood of departure by October 31 at roughly 6-7% because no credible developments—such as confirmed resignation announcements, Senate actions, or White House statements—indicate an imminent change before the resolution window closes. Historical patterns of cabinet stability in aligned administrations further support the current implied probability.