**Trump remains firmly positioned to complete his term through at least early 2027, as reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus on "No."** The constitutional threshold for removal—House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—creates a high barrier, especially with any new Democratic House majority (if it occurs after the November 2026 midterms) unlikely to secure the necessary Senate votes before 2027. Recent Kalshi pricing shows only a 2.5% chance of impeachment before January 2027 and roughly 18% before March 2027, underscoring the timeline mismatch. Official medical reports continue to describe the president as in excellent health despite public observations of age-related factors, reducing 25th Amendment prospects. Past impeachments ended in Senate acquittal, and current GOP cohesion plus the absence of acute scandals or bipartisan momentum further anchor expectations that no removal mechanism will succeed in the narrow window before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
6% Chance
$11,451,028 Vol.
$11,451,028 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
6% Chance
$11,451,028 Vol.
$11,451,028 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trump remains firmly positioned to complete his term through at least early 2027, as reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus on "No."** The constitutional threshold for removal—House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—creates a high barrier, especially with any new Democratic House majority (if it occurs after the November 2026 midterms) unlikely to secure the necessary Senate votes before 2027. Recent Kalshi pricing shows only a 2.5% chance of impeachment before January 2027 and roughly 18% before March 2027, underscoring the timeline mismatch. Official medical reports continue to describe the president as in excellent health despite public observations of age-related factors, reducing 25th Amendment prospects. Past impeachments ended in Senate acquittal, and current GOP cohesion plus the absence of acute scandals or bipartisan momentum further anchor expectations that no removal mechanism will succeed in the narrow window before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$11,451,028Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trump remains firmly positioned to complete his term through at least early 2027, as reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus on "No."** The constitutional threshold for removal—House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—creates a high barrier, especially with any new Democratic House majority (if it occurs after the November 2026 midterms) unlikely to secure the necessary Senate votes before 2027. Recent Kalshi pricing shows only a 2.5% chance of impeachment before January 2027 and roughly 18% before March 2027, underscoring the timeline mismatch. Official medical reports continue to describe the president as in excellent health despite public observations of age-related factors, reducing 25th Amendment prospects. Past impeachments ended in Senate acquittal, and current GOP cohesion plus the absence of acute scandals or bipartisan momentum further anchor expectations that no removal mechanism will succeed in the narrow window before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,451,028Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Trump remains firmly positioned to complete his term through at least early 2027, as reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus on "No."** The constitutional threshold for removal—House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—creates a high barrier, especially with any new Democratic House majority (if it occurs after the November 2026 midterms) unlikely to secure the necessary Senate votes before 2027. Recent Kalshi pricing shows only a 2.5% chance of impeachment before January 2027 and roughly 18% before March 2027, underscoring the timeline mismatch. Official medical reports continue to describe the president as in excellent health despite public observations of age-related factors, reducing 25th Amendment prospects. Past impeachments ended in Senate acquittal, and current GOP cohesion plus the absence of acute scandals or bipartisan momentum further anchor expectations that no removal mechanism will succeed in the narrow window before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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