Democrats' strong position to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 67.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. With Republicans holding a narrow majority, traders price in a likely shift that would enable the majority party to advance resolutions, as seen with the recent H.Res. 1486 introduced in August 2026 citing constitutional violations and recent events. Historical precedent of prior impeachments, combined with ongoing partisan tensions over policy disputes and institutional actions, reinforces expectations of floor proceedings in a Democratic-led chamber. Senate conviction remains a separate, lower-probability step, but the market focuses on House passage as the key threshold. Upcoming midterm results and any additional resolutions could further influence positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird Trump vor Ablauf seiner Amtszeit angeklagt?
Wird Trump vor Ablauf seiner Amtszeit angeklagt?
Ja
68% Chance
$102,057 Vol.
$102,057 Vol.
19. Jan. 2029
3.25 % verdienen
Ja
68% Chance
$102,057 Vol.
$102,057 Vol.
19. Jan. 2029
3.25 % verdienen
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' strong position to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 67.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. With Republicans holding a narrow majority, traders price in a likely shift that would enable the majority party to advance resolutions, as seen with the recent H.Res. 1486 introduced in August 2026 citing constitutional violations and recent events. Historical precedent of prior impeachments, combined with ongoing partisan tensions over policy disputes and institutional actions, reinforces expectations of floor proceedings in a Democratic-led chamber. Senate conviction remains a separate, lower-probability step, but the market focuses on House passage as the key threshold. Upcoming midterm results and any additional resolutions could further influence positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volumen
$102,057Enddatum
20. Jan. 2029Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' strong position to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 67.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. With Republicans holding a narrow majority, traders price in a likely shift that would enable the majority party to advance resolutions, as seen with the recent H.Res. 1486 introduced in August 2026 citing constitutional violations and recent events. Historical precedent of prior impeachments, combined with ongoing partisan tensions over policy disputes and institutional actions, reinforces expectations of floor proceedings in a Democratic-led chamber. Senate conviction remains a separate, lower-probability step, but the market focuses on House passage as the key threshold. Upcoming midterm results and any additional resolutions could further influence positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volumen
$102,057Enddatum
20. Jan. 2029Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Democrats' strong position to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 67.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. With Republicans holding a narrow majority, traders price in a likely shift that would enable the majority party to advance resolutions, as seen with the recent H.Res. 1486 introduced in August 2026 citing constitutional violations and recent events. Historical precedent of prior impeachments, combined with ongoing partisan tensions over policy disputes and institutional actions, reinforces expectations of floor proceedings in a Democratic-led chamber. Senate conviction remains a separate, lower-probability step, but the market focuses on House passage as the key threshold. Upcoming midterm results and any additional resolutions could further influence positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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