Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast since September 2026, including control of Mocha port and Perim Island, have heightened risks to Bab el-Mandeb transits without triggering a formal closure or blanket interdiction of non-Saudi shipping. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counter-offensive in early October that reportedly recaptured key coastal positions, though Houthis dispute the extent of losses and retain launch capability from inland and higher ground. Traffic volumes remain 36–46% below pre-crisis levels amid continued risk premiums, dark transits, and selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels, yet container carriers have steadily restored Red Sea routings and overall transits show modest recovery. Persistent low-level incidents, naval patrols, and unresolved ground fighting near the strait continue to shape trader assessments of disruption probability through year-end.