The strong trader consensus against Kristi Noem's impeachment in 2026 stems from the lack of any active legislative inquiry, formal charges, or bipartisan support in the South Dakota legislature for removal proceedings. Gubernatorial impeachments remain rare under state constitutional standards, which typically require specific grounds such as malfeasance or corruption, followed by House initiation and Senate trial. With no major scandals, ethics violations, or official investigations reported through September 2026, the implied probability reflects this stable institutional baseline. Late-session developments, including new evidence from ongoing probes, a criminal conviction, or sudden shifts in legislative majorities, could still introduce uncertainty before the year's end.