Recent economic data and forecaster surveys point to subdued Q3 2026 growth amid elevated energy import costs from Middle East tensions and the Bank of Japan’s September rate hike to 1.25%. Q2 annualized GDP came in at 1.4% after upward revision, but private consumption remained flat while capital expenditure stayed weak; JCER’s mid-September consensus now projects just 0.25% annualized for the current quarter. Solid export momentum and nominal wage gains near 4.7% year-over-year provide some offset, yet higher oil prices have prompted the government to trim its FY2026 outlook to 0.9%. With Q3 data due in November and inflation easing only modestly to 1.7% core, trader probabilities cluster tightly around low-single-digit or near-zero annualized readings, reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can withstand ongoing cost pressures and tighter monetary conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0.0%–0.8% 37.4%
0.8%–1.6% 32%
-0.8%–0.0% 24%
2.4%–3.2% 6.3%
$27,274 Vol.
$27,274 Vol.
15. Nov. 2026
<-2.4%
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
24%
0.0%–0.8%
37%
0.8%–1.6%
32%
1.6%–2.4%
5%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 37.4%
0.8%–1.6% 32%
-0.8%–0.0% 24%
2.4%–3.2% 6.3%
$27,274 Vol.
$27,274 Vol.
15. Nov. 2026
<-2.4%
$604 Vol.
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,758 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,635 Vol.
24%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,253 Vol.
37%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,834 Vol.
32%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Vol.
5%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 Vol.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent economic data and forecaster surveys point to subdued Q3 2026 growth amid elevated energy import costs from Middle East tensions and the Bank of Japan’s September rate hike to 1.25%. Q2 annualized GDP came in at 1.4% after upward revision, but private consumption remained flat while capital expenditure stayed weak; JCER’s mid-September consensus now projects just 0.25% annualized for the current quarter. Solid export momentum and nominal wage gains near 4.7% year-over-year provide some offset, yet higher oil prices have prompted the government to trim its FY2026 outlook to 0.9%. With Q3 data due in November and inflation easing only modestly to 1.7% core, trader probabilities cluster tightly around low-single-digit or near-zero annualized readings, reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can withstand ongoing cost pressures and tighter monetary conditions.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volumen
$27,274Enddatum
16. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent economic data and forecaster surveys point to subdued Q3 2026 growth amid elevated energy import costs from Middle East tensions and the Bank of Japan’s September rate hike to 1.25%. Q2 annualized GDP came in at 1.4% after upward revision, but private consumption remained flat while capital expenditure stayed weak; JCER’s mid-September consensus now projects just 0.25% annualized for the current quarter. Solid export momentum and nominal wage gains near 4.7% year-over-year provide some offset, yet higher oil prices have prompted the government to trim its FY2026 outlook to 0.9%. With Q3 data due in November and inflation easing only modestly to 1.7% core, trader probabilities cluster tightly around low-single-digit or near-zero annualized readings, reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can withstand ongoing cost pressures and tighter monetary conditions.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$27,274Enddatum
16. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data and forecaster surveys point to subdued Q3 2026 growth amid elevated energy import costs from Middle East tensions and the Bank of Japan’s September rate hike to 1.25%. Q2 annualized GDP came in at 1.4% after upward revision, but private consumption remained flat while capital expenditure stayed weak; JCER’s mid-September consensus now projects just 0.25% annualized for the current quarter. Solid export momentum and nominal wage gains near 4.7% year-over-year provide some offset, yet higher oil prices have prompted the government to trim its FY2026 outlook to 0.9%. With Q3 data due in November and inflation easing only modestly to 1.7% core, trader probabilities cluster tightly around low-single-digit or near-zero annualized readings, reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can withstand ongoing cost pressures and tighter monetary conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen