US intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s 2026 military power report indicate Chinese leaders currently lack both a fixed timeline and the full amphibious capabilities needed for a successful Taiwan invasion by late 2027, favoring instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and naval patrols, coast guard operations, and blockade rehearsals. Xi Jinping’s recent purges of senior PLA officers have further degraded command structures required for complex joint operations, shifting focus toward capability-building ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary milestone rather than immediate action. Ongoing Taiwanese modernization efforts, including drone integration and precision-strike drills, combined with US deterrence signals, reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
12% 概率
$3,236,760 交易量
$3,236,760 交易量
2027-12-31
赚 3.25% 收益
是
12% 概率
$3,236,760 交易量
$3,236,760 交易量
2027-12-31
赚 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s 2026 military power report indicate Chinese leaders currently lack both a fixed timeline and the full amphibious capabilities needed for a successful Taiwan invasion by late 2027, favoring instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and naval patrols, coast guard operations, and blockade rehearsals. Xi Jinping’s recent purges of senior PLA officers have further degraded command structures required for complex joint operations, shifting focus toward capability-building ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary milestone rather than immediate action. Ongoing Taiwanese modernization efforts, including drone integration and precision-strike drills, combined with US deterrence signals, reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$3,236,760结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s 2026 military power report indicate Chinese leaders currently lack both a fixed timeline and the full amphibious capabilities needed for a successful Taiwan invasion by late 2027, favoring instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and naval patrols, coast guard operations, and blockade rehearsals. Xi Jinping’s recent purges of senior PLA officers have further degraded command structures required for complex joint operations, shifting focus toward capability-building ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary milestone rather than immediate action. Ongoing Taiwanese modernization efforts, including drone integration and precision-strike drills, combined with US deterrence signals, reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$3,236,760结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETUS intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s 2026 military power report indicate Chinese leaders currently lack both a fixed timeline and the full amphibious capabilities needed for a successful Taiwan invasion by late 2027, favoring instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and naval patrols, coast guard operations, and blockade rehearsals. Xi Jinping’s recent purges of senior PLA officers have further degraded command structures required for complex joint operations, shifting focus toward capability-building ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary milestone rather than immediate action. Ongoing Taiwanese modernization efforts, including drone integration and precision-strike drills, combined with US deterrence signals, reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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