Xi Jinping’s ongoing anti-corruption and loyalty campaign has produced unprecedented churn in the People’s Liberation Army, with more than 100 senior officers removed or investigated since 2022 and the Central Military Commission reduced to Xi and one remaining vice chairman after the January 2026 probes of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. Additional Politburo-level removals, including Ma Xingrui in spring 2026, and the scheduled October Fifth Plenary Session—expected to expel over 40 Central Committee members—have sustained momentum into the second half of the year. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to Defense Minister Dong Jun and discipline chief Zhang Shengmin, reflecting their positions in depleted military networks, while top Politburo Standing Committee figures carry low single-digit odds consistent with the pattern of targeting theater commands, Rocket Force successors, and provincial officials rather than the innermost circle. The opaque selection process and emphasis on “impurity in thought” leave substantial room for further surprises before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$210,666 交易量
2026-12-31
董军
7%
张升民
7%
赵乐际
5%
蔡奇
5%
丁薛祥
4%
王沪宁
3%
王毅
1%
李希
1%
李强
1%
$210,666 交易量
董军
$39,541 交易量
7%
张升民
$29,757 交易量
7%
赵乐际
$11,674 交易量
5%
蔡奇
$49,413 交易量
5%
丁薛祥
$16,189 交易量
4%
王沪宁
$12,098 交易量
3%
王毅
$15,730 交易量
1%
李希
$29,232 交易量
1%
李强
$7,032 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor.
2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect.
A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing anti-corruption and loyalty campaign has produced unprecedented churn in the People’s Liberation Army, with more than 100 senior officers removed or investigated since 2022 and the Central Military Commission reduced to Xi and one remaining vice chairman after the January 2026 probes of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. Additional Politburo-level removals, including Ma Xingrui in spring 2026, and the scheduled October Fifth Plenary Session—expected to expel over 40 Central Committee members—have sustained momentum into the second half of the year. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to Defense Minister Dong Jun and discipline chief Zhang Shengmin, reflecting their positions in depleted military networks, while top Politburo Standing Committee figures carry low single-digit odds consistent with the pattern of targeting theater commands, Rocket Force successors, and provincial officials rather than the innermost circle. The opaque selection process and emphasis on “impurity in thought” leave substantial room for further surprises before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor.
2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect.
A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.
1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor.
2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect.
A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
交易量
$210,666结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:39 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor.
2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect.
A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing anti-corruption and loyalty campaign has produced unprecedented churn in the People’s Liberation Army, with more than 100 senior officers removed or investigated since 2022 and the Central Military Commission reduced to Xi and one remaining vice chairman after the January 2026 probes of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. Additional Politburo-level removals, including Ma Xingrui in spring 2026, and the scheduled October Fifth Plenary Session—expected to expel over 40 Central Committee members—have sustained momentum into the second half of the year. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to Defense Minister Dong Jun and discipline chief Zhang Shengmin, reflecting their positions in depleted military networks, while top Politburo Standing Committee figures carry low single-digit odds consistent with the pattern of targeting theater commands, Rocket Force successors, and provincial officials rather than the innermost circle. The opaque selection process and emphasis on “impurity in thought” leave substantial room for further surprises before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor.
2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect.
A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.
1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor.
2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect.
A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$210,666结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:39 PM ETXi Jinping’s ongoing anti-corruption and loyalty campaign has produced unprecedented churn in the People’s Liberation Army, with more than 100 senior officers removed or investigated since 2022 and the Central Military Commission reduced to Xi and one remaining vice chairman after the January 2026 probes of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. Additional Politburo-level removals, including Ma Xingrui in spring 2026, and the scheduled October Fifth Plenary Session—expected to expel over 40 Central Committee members—have sustained momentum into the second half of the year. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to Defense Minister Dong Jun and discipline chief Zhang Shengmin, reflecting their positions in depleted military networks, while top Politburo Standing Committee figures carry low single-digit odds consistent with the pattern of targeting theater commands, Rocket Force successors, and provincial officials rather than the innermost circle. The opaque selection process and emphasis on “impurity in thought” leave substantial room for further surprises before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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