The sustained US naval blockade on Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz traffic, reinstated in July 2026 after the June memorandum of understanding collapsed, remains active with ongoing enforcement actions as of mid-September. Recent shipping data confirm redirected vessels, sharply reduced Iranian crude loadings, and no verified de-escalation or official lifting announcements. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's September 16 calls for renewed US-Iran talks and return to prior agreements have not produced breakthroughs or timelines for compliance. Xi Jinping's scheduled late-September White House summit with President Trump occurs against this backdrop of unresolved tensions, with traders assigning 92% probability that the blockade persists through the visit window due to the absence of diplomatic progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
8% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
8% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The sustained US naval blockade on Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz traffic, reinstated in July 2026 after the June memorandum of understanding collapsed, remains active with ongoing enforcement actions as of mid-September. Recent shipping data confirm redirected vessels, sharply reduced Iranian crude loadings, and no verified de-escalation or official lifting announcements. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's September 16 calls for renewed US-Iran talks and return to prior agreements have not produced breakthroughs or timelines for compliance. Xi Jinping's scheduled late-September White House summit with President Trump occurs against this backdrop of unresolved tensions, with traders assigning 92% probability that the blockade persists through the visit window due to the absence of diplomatic progress.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:39 PM ET
交易量
$1,930结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:39 PM ETOn July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The sustained US naval blockade on Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz traffic, reinstated in July 2026 after the June memorandum of understanding collapsed, remains active with ongoing enforcement actions as of mid-September. Recent shipping data confirm redirected vessels, sharply reduced Iranian crude loadings, and no verified de-escalation or official lifting announcements. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's September 16 calls for renewed US-Iran talks and return to prior agreements have not produced breakthroughs or timelines for compliance. Xi Jinping's scheduled late-September White House summit with President Trump occurs against this backdrop of unresolved tensions, with traders assigning 92% probability that the blockade persists through the visit window due to the absence of diplomatic progress.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,930结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:39 PM ETThe sustained US naval blockade on Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz traffic, reinstated in July 2026 after the June memorandum of understanding collapsed, remains active with ongoing enforcement actions as of mid-September. Recent shipping data confirm redirected vessels, sharply reduced Iranian crude loadings, and no verified de-escalation or official lifting announcements. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's September 16 calls for renewed US-Iran talks and return to prior agreements have not produced breakthroughs or timelines for compliance. Xi Jinping's scheduled late-September White House summit with President Trump occurs against this backdrop of unresolved tensions, with traders assigning 92% probability that the blockade persists through the visit window due to the absence of diplomatic progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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