**Ongoing bilateral mechanisms and scheduled high-level diplomacy underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a US-China tariff agreement or extension by December 31, 2026.** The existing Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement (reached after the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit) has maintained suspended or capped reciprocal tariffs near 10-20% levels through November 10, 2026, with China suspending retaliatory duties on US agricultural goods until December 31, 2026. Subsequent 2026 summits in Beijing and related talks produced commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, market-access restorations for US exports, and the creation of US-China Boards of Trade and Investment to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side. Recent Section 301 actions (such as the July 2026 12.5% replacement tariff) have stayed within agreed caps, drawing only statements rather than new countermeasures from China. With Xi’s planned September US visit, plus potential APEC and G20 encounters in November-December, the diplomatic calendar supports further stabilization or formalization of tariff terms before year-end. Traders appear to view these sustained de-escalation channels and near-term leader engagements as the dominant factors making a positive resolution by December 31 highly probable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于89% 概率
$245,647 交易量
$245,647 交易量
2026-12-31
89% 概率
$245,647 交易量
$245,647 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing bilateral mechanisms and scheduled high-level diplomacy underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a US-China tariff agreement or extension by December 31, 2026.**
The existing Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement (reached after the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit) has maintained suspended or capped reciprocal tariffs near 10-20% levels through November 10, 2026, with China suspending retaliatory duties on US agricultural goods until December 31, 2026. Subsequent 2026 summits in Beijing and related talks produced commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, market-access restorations for US exports, and the creation of US-China Boards of Trade and Investment to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side.
Recent Section 301 actions (such as the July 2026 12.5% replacement tariff) have stayed within agreed caps, drawing only statements rather than new countermeasures from China. With Xi’s planned September US visit, plus potential APEC and G20 encounters in November-December, the diplomatic calendar supports further stabilization or formalization of tariff terms before year-end. Traders appear to view these sustained de-escalation channels and near-term leader engagements as the dominant factors making a positive resolution by December 31 highly probable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
交易量
$245,647结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing bilateral mechanisms and scheduled high-level diplomacy underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a US-China tariff agreement or extension by December 31, 2026.**
The existing Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement (reached after the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit) has maintained suspended or capped reciprocal tariffs near 10-20% levels through November 10, 2026, with China suspending retaliatory duties on US agricultural goods until December 31, 2026. Subsequent 2026 summits in Beijing and related talks produced commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, market-access restorations for US exports, and the creation of US-China Boards of Trade and Investment to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side.
Recent Section 301 actions (such as the July 2026 12.5% replacement tariff) have stayed within agreed caps, drawing only statements rather than new countermeasures from China. With Xi’s planned September US visit, plus potential APEC and G20 encounters in November-December, the diplomatic calendar supports further stabilization or formalization of tariff terms before year-end. Traders appear to view these sustained de-escalation channels and near-term leader engagements as the dominant factors making a positive resolution by December 31 highly probable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$245,647结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET**Ongoing bilateral mechanisms and scheduled high-level diplomacy underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a US-China tariff agreement or extension by December 31, 2026.** The existing Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement (reached after the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit) has maintained suspended or capped reciprocal tariffs near 10-20% levels through November 10, 2026, with China suspending retaliatory duties on US agricultural goods until December 31, 2026. Subsequent 2026 summits in Beijing and related talks produced commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, market-access restorations for US exports, and the creation of US-China Boards of Trade and Investment to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side. Recent Section 301 actions (such as the July 2026 12.5% replacement tariff) have stayed within agreed caps, drawing only statements rather than new countermeasures from China. With Xi’s planned September US visit, plus potential APEC and G20 encounters in November-December, the diplomatic calendar supports further stabilization or formalization of tariff terms before year-end. Traders appear to view these sustained de-escalation channels and near-term leader engagements as the dominant factors making a positive resolution by December 31 highly probable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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