Traders assign a 96% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 primarily because the remaining timeframe is too short for the large-scale amphibious and logistical preparations required for such an operation. Recent developments reinforce this view, with Beijing emphasizing coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, joint blockade exercises, and gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. Taiwan continues to accelerate defense spending, unmanned systems procurement, and readiness drills, while U.S.-China diplomacy, including a planned September 2026 summit, remains active despite tensions over arms sales. These patterns align with historical emphasis on coercion and normalization of presence over direct conflict. A sudden shift could still occur through miscalculation during exercises or rapid mobilization, though no verified indicators point to that threshold in the near term.