Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027, reflecting the projected timeline for the statutory limit and established patterns of congressional action. The debt ceiling, raised by $5 trillion in 2025 to roughly $41.1 trillion, is expected to bind between February and July 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures providing several additional months before any X-date. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing the consistent record of timely limit increases or suspensions across decades. Bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption and payment delays further support resolution ahead of 2028. Late-session negotiations or revenue shortfalls could compress timelines, though historical precedent indicates such pressures typically yield agreements rather than default.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027, reflecting the projected timeline for the statutory limit and established patterns of congressional action. The debt ceiling, raised by $5 trillion in 2025 to roughly $41.1 trillion, is expected to bind between February and July 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures providing several additional months before any X-date. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing the consistent record of timely limit increases or suspensions across decades. Bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption and payment delays further support resolution ahead of 2028. Late-session negotiations or revenue shortfalls could compress timelines, though historical precedent indicates such pressures typically yield agreements rather than default.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027, reflecting the projected timeline for the statutory limit and established patterns of congressional action. The debt ceiling, raised by $5 trillion in 2025 to roughly $41.1 trillion, is expected to bind between February and July 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures providing several additional months before any X-date. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing the consistent record of timely limit increases or suspensions across decades. Bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption and payment delays further support resolution ahead of 2028. Late-session negotiations or revenue shortfalls could compress timelines, though historical precedent indicates such pressures typically yield agreements rather than default.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETTraders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027, reflecting the projected timeline for the statutory limit and established patterns of congressional action. The debt ceiling, raised by $5 trillion in 2025 to roughly $41.1 trillion, is expected to bind between February and July 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures providing several additional months before any X-date. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing the consistent record of timely limit increases or suspensions across decades. Bipartisan incentives to avoid market disruption and payment delays further support resolution ahead of 2028. Late-session negotiations or revenue shortfalls could compress timelines, though historical precedent indicates such pressures typically yield agreements rather than default.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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