**Steve Toth holds a commanding lead in the TX-02 race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt and his primary victory.** Texas’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+11 and receives “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary after redistricting added more of his Montgomery County base and he secured endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He now faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, who won an uncontested primary but trails significantly in a district that has consistently favored Republican candidates. Recent campaign finance shows both sides raising substantial funds, yet the structural advantages of incumbency replacement within the GOP and the district’s voting patterns have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Toth. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal involving the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in Harris County portions could narrow the margin, though forecasters currently view such shifts as low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,429 交易量
$23,429 交易量
2026-11-02
史蒂夫·托斯 (共和党)
93%
Shaun Finnie（民主党）
7%
$23,429 交易量
$23,429 交易量
2026-11-02
史蒂夫·托斯 (共和党)
$11,629 交易量
93%
Shaun Finnie（民主党）
$11,800 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Steve Toth holds a commanding lead in the TX-02 race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt and his primary victory.** Texas’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+11 and receives “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary after redistricting added more of his Montgomery County base and he secured endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He now faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, who won an uncontested primary but trails significantly in a district that has consistently favored Republican candidates.
Recent campaign finance shows both sides raising substantial funds, yet the structural advantages of incumbency replacement within the GOP and the district’s voting patterns have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Toth. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal involving the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in Harris County portions could narrow the margin, though forecasters currently view such shifts as low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$23,429结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Steve Toth holds a commanding lead in the TX-02 race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt and his primary victory.** Texas’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+11 and receives “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary after redistricting added more of his Montgomery County base and he secured endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He now faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, who won an uncontested primary but trails significantly in a district that has consistently favored Republican candidates.
Recent campaign finance shows both sides raising substantial funds, yet the structural advantages of incumbency replacement within the GOP and the district’s voting patterns have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Toth. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal involving the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in Harris County portions could narrow the margin, though forecasters currently view such shifts as low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,429结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET**Steve Toth holds a commanding lead in the TX-02 race due to the district’s strong Republican tilt and his primary victory.** Texas’s 2nd Congressional District carries a Partisan Voter Index of roughly R+10 to R+11 and receives “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 Republican primary after redistricting added more of his Montgomery County base and he secured endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. He now faces Democrat Shaun Finnie, who won an uncontested primary but trails significantly in a district that has consistently favored Republican candidates. Recent campaign finance shows both sides raising substantial funds, yet the structural advantages of incumbency replacement within the GOP and the district’s voting patterns have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Toth. A late national Democratic wave, major scandal involving the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in Harris County portions could narrow the margin, though forecasters currently view such shifts as low-probability events before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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