**Strong critical reception and robust pre-release tracking position the under-$70 million bracket as the clear market leader at 62.5% implied probability.** Zach Cregger’s fresh reboot of the Resident Evil franchise has earned near-universal praise (96% on Rotten Tomatoes), including standout audience scores, for its tight 95-minute runtime, video game-inspired thrills, and Austin Abrams-led cast. This buzz, combined with Cregger’s recent horror success on *Weapons*, has driven record franchise previews of $8–9 million and pushed third-party estimates to $40–50 million domestically, with some optimistic trackers eyeing a possible $50–60 million ceiling. Sony’s own projection sits at roughly $40 million from about 3,500 theaters on a $75 million budget, comfortably ahead of the prior franchise high of $26.6 million (*Afterlife*, 2010). Limited weekend competition and positive word-of-mouth potential further support momentum within the $40–60 million range. The higher brackets (70M+) carry lower implied odds because even bullish scenarios remain well below those thresholds, though late surges in turnout or exceptional holds could narrow the gap. Traders are pricing in the film’s genre constraints and historical precedent for horror openings while recognizing the unusually strong early indicators for this IP revival.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于《生化危机》开场周末票房(高位)
低于7000万美元 50%
7300万-7600万 25%
7600万-7900万 25%
7000万-7300万 14%
低于7000万美元
63%
7000万-7300万
14%
7300万-7600万
25%
7600万-7900万
25%
7900万以上
8%
低于7000万美元 50%
7300万-7600万 25%
7600万-7900万 25%
7000万-7300万 14%
低于7000万美元
63%
7000万-7300万
14%
7300万-7600万
25%
7600万-7900万
25%
7900万以上
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间: Sep 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
**Strong critical reception and robust pre-release tracking position the under-$70 million bracket as the clear market leader at 62.5% implied probability.** Zach Cregger’s fresh reboot of the Resident Evil franchise has earned near-universal praise (96% on Rotten Tomatoes), including standout audience scores, for its tight 95-minute runtime, video game-inspired thrills, and Austin Abrams-led cast. This buzz, combined with Cregger’s recent horror success on *Weapons*, has driven record franchise previews of $8–9 million and pushed third-party estimates to $40–50 million domestically, with some optimistic trackers eyeing a possible $50–60 million ceiling. Sony’s own projection sits at roughly $40 million from about 3,500 theaters on a $75 million budget, comfortably ahead of the prior franchise high of $26.6 million (*Afterlife*, 2010). Limited weekend competition and positive word-of-mouth potential further support momentum within the $40–60 million range. The higher brackets (70M+) carry lower implied odds because even bullish scenarios remain well below those thresholds, though late surges in turnout or exceptional holds could narrow the gap. Traders are pricing in the film’s genre constraints and historical precedent for horror openings while recognizing the unusually strong early indicators for this IP revival.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于


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