Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in the NY-20 House race as the longtime Democratic incumbent in a district rated solidly Democratic by nonpartisan analysts, with consistent past margins reflecting its voter base in Albany and surrounding counties. Traders price his reelection at 95.6 percent due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $950,000 compared to the challenger's under $30,000, and the absence of competitive primary opposition or recent polling shifts. Ralph Ambrosio, the Republican nominee with a background in law enforcement and state service, faces structural barriers in a district without major recent developments that would alter the baseline. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national political realignment could still influence the November 3 outcome, though current evidence points to limited pathways for change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,403 交易量
$35,403 交易量
2026-11-02
保罗·汤科（民主党）
96%
拉尔夫·安布罗休 (共和党)
4%
$35,403 交易量
$35,403 交易量
2026-11-02
保罗·汤科（民主党）
$16,564 交易量
96%
拉尔夫·安布罗休 (共和党)
$18,839 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in the NY-20 House race as the longtime Democratic incumbent in a district rated solidly Democratic by nonpartisan analysts, with consistent past margins reflecting its voter base in Albany and surrounding counties. Traders price his reelection at 95.6 percent due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $950,000 compared to the challenger's under $30,000, and the absence of competitive primary opposition or recent polling shifts. Ralph Ambrosio, the Republican nominee with a background in law enforcement and state service, faces structural barriers in a district without major recent developments that would alter the baseline. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national political realignment could still influence the November 3 outcome, though current evidence points to limited pathways for change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$35,403结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in the NY-20 House race as the longtime Democratic incumbent in a district rated solidly Democratic by nonpartisan analysts, with consistent past margins reflecting its voter base in Albany and surrounding counties. Traders price his reelection at 95.6 percent due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $950,000 compared to the challenger's under $30,000, and the absence of competitive primary opposition or recent polling shifts. Ralph Ambrosio, the Republican nominee with a background in law enforcement and state service, faces structural barriers in a district without major recent developments that would alter the baseline. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national political realignment could still influence the November 3 outcome, though current evidence points to limited pathways for change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,403结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETPaul Tonko holds a commanding position in the NY-20 House race as the longtime Democratic incumbent in a district rated solidly Democratic by nonpartisan analysts, with consistent past margins reflecting its voter base in Albany and surrounding counties. Traders price his reelection at 95.6 percent due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $950,000 compared to the challenger's under $30,000, and the absence of competitive primary opposition or recent polling shifts. Ralph Ambrosio, the Republican nominee with a background in law enforcement and state service, faces structural barriers in a district without major recent developments that would alter the baseline. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national political realignment could still influence the November 3 outcome, though current evidence points to limited pathways for change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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