Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence of Kimi releases—K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 in mid-July 2026—has shaped trader views on the next K-family model. K3’s strong coding and agentic benchmarks, 1M-token context, and open-weight release quickly drove overwhelming demand that forced a subscription pause, highlighting compute bottlenecks even as the company pursues a Hong Kong IPO and revenue-sharing talks with U.S. cloud providers. No successor has shipped since July, yet the pattern of frequent frontier-scale updates and competitive pressure from other Chinese labs support elevated odds for a new Kimi K variant by year-end. Key swing factors include resolution of compute constraints and any post-IPO capital deployment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,781 交易量
2026-09-15
2026年9月15日
5%
2026年9月30日
90%
2026年12月31日
99%
$15,781 交易量
2026年9月15日
$1,891 交易量
5%
2026年9月30日
$9,775 交易量
90%
2026年12月31日
$2,188 交易量
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence of Kimi releases—K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 in mid-July 2026—has shaped trader views on the next K-family model. K3’s strong coding and agentic benchmarks, 1M-token context, and open-weight release quickly drove overwhelming demand that forced a subscription pause, highlighting compute bottlenecks even as the company pursues a Hong Kong IPO and revenue-sharing talks with U.S. cloud providers. No successor has shipped since July, yet the pattern of frequent frontier-scale updates and competitive pressure from other Chinese labs support elevated odds for a new Kimi K variant by year-end. Key swing factors include resolution of compute constraints and any post-IPO capital deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
交易量
$15,781结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid cadence of Kimi releases—K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 in mid-July 2026—has shaped trader views on the next K-family model. K3’s strong coding and agentic benchmarks, 1M-token context, and open-weight release quickly drove overwhelming demand that forced a subscription pause, highlighting compute bottlenecks even as the company pursues a Hong Kong IPO and revenue-sharing talks with U.S. cloud providers. No successor has shipped since July, yet the pattern of frequent frontier-scale updates and competitive pressure from other Chinese labs support elevated odds for a new Kimi K variant by year-end. Key swing factors include resolution of compute constraints and any post-IPO capital deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$15,781结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETMoonshot AI’s rapid cadence of Kimi releases—K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 in mid-July 2026—has shaped trader views on the next K-family model. K3’s strong coding and agentic benchmarks, 1M-token context, and open-weight release quickly drove overwhelming demand that forced a subscription pause, highlighting compute bottlenecks even as the company pursues a Hong Kong IPO and revenue-sharing talks with U.S. cloud providers. No successor has shipped since July, yet the pattern of frequent frontier-scale updates and competitive pressure from other Chinese labs support elevated odds for a new Kimi K variant by year-end. Key swing factors include resolution of compute constraints and any post-IPO capital deployment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题