The 5th district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent presidential margins exceeding 60 points and a Partisan Voter Index of D+32, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring incumbent Ilhan Omar. Omar secured her party's nomination by a wide margin in the August primary and faces no credible primary or general election threat in a Minneapolis-centered district that has elected Democrats by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired state trooper who prevailed in a low-turnout primary, lacks the resources or profile to overcome these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as scandals, health events, or an unprecedented national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current race ratings indicate such shifts remain improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$49,924 交易量
$49,924 交易量
2026-11-03
伊尔汗·奥马尔（民主党）
98%
约翰·纳格尔（共和党）
4%
$49,924 交易量
$49,924 交易量
2026-11-03
伊尔汗·奥马尔（民主党）
$18,256 交易量
98%
约翰·纳格尔（共和党）
$31,668 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 5th district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent presidential margins exceeding 60 points and a Partisan Voter Index of D+32, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring incumbent Ilhan Omar. Omar secured her party's nomination by a wide margin in the August primary and faces no credible primary or general election threat in a Minneapolis-centered district that has elected Democrats by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired state trooper who prevailed in a low-turnout primary, lacks the resources or profile to overcome these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as scandals, health events, or an unprecedented national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current race ratings indicate such shifts remain improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$49,924结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 5th district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent presidential margins exceeding 60 points and a Partisan Voter Index of D+32, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring incumbent Ilhan Omar. Omar secured her party's nomination by a wide margin in the August primary and faces no credible primary or general election threat in a Minneapolis-centered district that has elected Democrats by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired state trooper who prevailed in a low-turnout primary, lacks the resources or profile to overcome these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as scandals, health events, or an unprecedented national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current race ratings indicate such shifts remain improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$49,924结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThe 5th district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent presidential margins exceeding 60 points and a Partisan Voter Index of D+32, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring incumbent Ilhan Omar. Omar secured her party's nomination by a wide margin in the August primary and faces no credible primary or general election threat in a Minneapolis-centered district that has elected Democrats by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee John Nagel, a retired state trooper who prevailed in a low-turnout primary, lacks the resources or profile to overcome these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as scandals, health events, or an unprecedented national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current race ratings indicate such shifts remain improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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