Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-influenced ensembles, and regional Polish meteorological services indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 21 will likely settle near 10–11 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover that suppresses radiative cooling, moderate westerly winds advecting mild maritime air, and scattered showers maintaining dew points near 9–10 °C. These conditions limit the typical autumnal temperature drop seen under clear skies, while slight variations in model timing of the minimum—whether just before dawn or during early evening showers—create the tight 50 % split between the two leading outcomes. Historical September minima in Warsaw average around 11 °C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to sub-9 °C readings despite the unsettled pattern. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations through the evening will refine the exact threshold before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月21日华沙最低气温？
9月21日华沙最低气温？
11°C 50%
6°C或更低 47%
9°C 37%
7°C 17%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
6°C或更低
47%
7°C
17%
8°C
9%
9°C
37%
10°C
50%
11°C
50%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C或更高
<1%
11°C 50%
6°C或更低 47%
9°C 37%
7°C 17%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
6°C或更低
$0 交易量
47%
7°C
$0 交易量
17%
8°C
$0 交易量
9%
9°C
$0 交易量
37%
10°C
$13 交易量
50%
11°C
$0 交易量
50%
12°C
$25 交易量
<1%
13°C
$225 交易量
<1%
14°C
$15 交易量
<1%
15°C
$15 交易量
<1%
16°C或更高
$15 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-influenced ensembles, and regional Polish meteorological services indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 21 will likely settle near 10–11 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover that suppresses radiative cooling, moderate westerly winds advecting mild maritime air, and scattered showers maintaining dew points near 9–10 °C. These conditions limit the typical autumnal temperature drop seen under clear skies, while slight variations in model timing of the minimum—whether just before dawn or during early evening showers—create the tight 50 % split between the two leading outcomes. Historical September minima in Warsaw average around 11 °C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to sub-9 °C readings despite the unsettled pattern. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations through the evening will refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$308结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-influenced ensembles, and regional Polish meteorological services indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 21 will likely settle near 10–11 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover that suppresses radiative cooling, moderate westerly winds advecting mild maritime air, and scattered showers maintaining dew points near 9–10 °C. These conditions limit the typical autumnal temperature drop seen under clear skies, while slight variations in model timing of the minimum—whether just before dawn or during early evening showers—create the tight 50 % split between the two leading outcomes. Historical September minima in Warsaw average around 11 °C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to sub-9 °C readings despite the unsettled pattern. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations through the evening will refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$308结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETForecast models from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-influenced ensembles, and regional Polish meteorological services indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 21 will likely settle near 10–11 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover that suppresses radiative cooling, moderate westerly winds advecting mild maritime air, and scattered showers maintaining dew points near 9–10 °C. These conditions limit the typical autumnal temperature drop seen under clear skies, while slight variations in model timing of the minimum—whether just before dawn or during early evening showers—create the tight 50 % split between the two leading outcomes. Historical September minima in Warsaw average around 11 °C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to sub-9 °C readings despite the unsettled pattern. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations through the evening will refine the exact threshold before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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