**Trader consensus on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 remains near-certain at 97% "No" because the virus is overwhelmingly rodent-borne, with human-to-human transmission documented only for the Andes strain and limited to close, prolonged contact.** The May 2026 MV Hondius cluster produced just 13 cases and three deaths before strict quarantine and contact tracing ended spread by early July, consistent with CDC and WHO assessments of very low general-population risk. Andes virus requires sustained exposure and does not exhibit efficient respiratory transmission like pandemic pathogens; its high case-fatality rate further constrains chains of infection. No sustained community transmission or new clusters have emerged since. While a rare evolutionary shift enhancing transmissibility cannot be entirely ruled out, current surveillance data, model consensus, and historical patterns indicate such a scenario remains highly improbable before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
是
3% 概率
$18,129,972 交易量
$18,129,972 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$18,129,972 交易量
$18,129,972 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 remains near-certain at 97% "No" because the virus is overwhelmingly rodent-borne, with human-to-human transmission documented only for the Andes strain and limited to close, prolonged contact.** The May 2026 MV Hondius cluster produced just 13 cases and three deaths before strict quarantine and contact tracing ended spread by early July, consistent with CDC and WHO assessments of very low general-population risk. Andes virus requires sustained exposure and does not exhibit efficient respiratory transmission like pandemic pathogens; its high case-fatality rate further constrains chains of infection. No sustained community transmission or new clusters have emerged since. While a rare evolutionary shift enhancing transmissibility cannot be entirely ruled out, current surveillance data, model consensus, and historical patterns indicate such a scenario remains highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$18,129,972结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 remains near-certain at 97% "No" because the virus is overwhelmingly rodent-borne, with human-to-human transmission documented only for the Andes strain and limited to close, prolonged contact.** The May 2026 MV Hondius cluster produced just 13 cases and three deaths before strict quarantine and contact tracing ended spread by early July, consistent with CDC and WHO assessments of very low general-population risk. Andes virus requires sustained exposure and does not exhibit efficient respiratory transmission like pandemic pathogens; its high case-fatality rate further constrains chains of infection. No sustained community transmission or new clusters have emerged since. While a rare evolutionary shift enhancing transmissibility cannot be entirely ruled out, current surveillance data, model consensus, and historical patterns indicate such a scenario remains highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,129,972结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET**Trader consensus on a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 remains near-certain at 97% "No" because the virus is overwhelmingly rodent-borne, with human-to-human transmission documented only for the Andes strain and limited to close, prolonged contact.** The May 2026 MV Hondius cluster produced just 13 cases and three deaths before strict quarantine and contact tracing ended spread by early July, consistent with CDC and WHO assessments of very low general-population risk. Andes virus requires sustained exposure and does not exhibit efficient respiratory transmission like pandemic pathogens; its high case-fatality rate further constrains chains of infection. No sustained community transmission or new clusters have emerged since. While a rare evolutionary shift enhancing transmissibility cannot be entirely ruled out, current surveillance data, model consensus, and historical patterns indicate such a scenario remains highly improbable before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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