Official observations from San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum of 57°F on September 20, 2026, placing it squarely in the market's leading 56-57°F bin at 51.5% implied probability. Persistent marine layer fog and haze, driven by onshore flow and a stable boundary layer, limited overnight radiative cooling and kept the low just above the 1991-2020 normal of 56°F. Model guidance and surface analyses showed no significant cold advection or clear-sky conditions that would have allowed temperatures to drop into the low 50s or below. With the event concluded and National Weather Service data now available, trader consensus reflects high confidence in this narrow range while assigning lower odds to cooler outcomes that would require atypical atmospheric setup.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月20日旧金山最低气温？
9月20日旧金山最低气温？
56-57°F 96%
51°F或更低 89%
52-53°F 2%
54-55°F 2%
$5,857 交易量
$5,857 交易量
2026-09-20
51°F或更低
89%
52-53°F
2%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
96%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69华氏度
<1%
70°F或更高
<1%
56-57°F 96%
51°F或更低 89%
52-53°F 2%
54-55°F 2%
$5,857 交易量
$5,857 交易量
2026-09-20
51°F或更低
$0 交易量
89%
52-53°F
$5 交易量
2%
54-55°F
$5 交易量
2%
56-57°F
$126 交易量
96%
58-59°F
$4,275 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$1,299 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$37 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$31 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$31 交易量
<1%
68-69华氏度
$31 交易量
<1%
70°F或更高
$16 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum of 57°F on September 20, 2026, placing it squarely in the market's leading 56-57°F bin at 51.5% implied probability. Persistent marine layer fog and haze, driven by onshore flow and a stable boundary layer, limited overnight radiative cooling and kept the low just above the 1991-2020 normal of 56°F. Model guidance and surface analyses showed no significant cold advection or clear-sky conditions that would have allowed temperatures to drop into the low 50s or below. With the event concluded and National Weather Service data now available, trader consensus reflects high confidence in this narrow range while assigning lower odds to cooler outcomes that would require atypical atmospheric setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$5,857结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 7:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum of 57°F on September 20, 2026, placing it squarely in the market's leading 56-57°F bin at 51.5% implied probability. Persistent marine layer fog and haze, driven by onshore flow and a stable boundary layer, limited overnight radiative cooling and kept the low just above the 1991-2020 normal of 56°F. Model guidance and surface analyses showed no significant cold advection or clear-sky conditions that would have allowed temperatures to drop into the low 50s or below. With the event concluded and National Weather Service data now available, trader consensus reflects high confidence in this narrow range while assigning lower odds to cooler outcomes that would require atypical atmospheric setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,857结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 7:29 AM ETOfficial observations from San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum of 57°F on September 20, 2026, placing it squarely in the market's leading 56-57°F bin at 51.5% implied probability. Persistent marine layer fog and haze, driven by onshore flow and a stable boundary layer, limited overnight radiative cooling and kept the low just above the 1991-2020 normal of 56°F. Model guidance and surface analyses showed no significant cold advection or clear-sky conditions that would have allowed temperatures to drop into the low 50s or below. With the event concluded and National Weather Service data now available, trader consensus reflects high confidence in this narrow range while assigning lower odds to cooler outcomes that would require atypical atmospheric setup.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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