Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, revised higher to 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% annualized, reflected resilient net exports and firmer government spending, yet private consumption remained essentially flat while business investment stayed weak. Analyst surveys in mid-September now center Q3 forecasts near 0.25% annualized, citing softening domestic demand, elevated energy import costs, and the Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% that signals a shift toward containing inflation overshoots above the 2% target. Real wage gains and AI-related external demand provide some offset, but the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 0–1.6% annualized underscore uncertainty over whether consumption and capex can sustain momentum into the final quarter before the November preliminary release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0.0%–0.8% 34.6%
0.8%–1.6% 32%
-0.8%–0.0% 24%
<-2.4% 5.5%
$27,444 交易量
$27,444 交易量
2026-11-15
<-2.4%
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
24%
0.0%–0.8%
35%
0.8%–1.6%
32%
1.6%–2.4%
5%
2.4%–3.2%
5%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 34.6%
0.8%–1.6% 32%
-0.8%–0.0% 24%
<-2.4% 5.5%
$27,444 交易量
$27,444 交易量
2026-11-15
<-2.4%
$604 交易量
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,758 交易量
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 交易量
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,640 交易量
24%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,416 交易量
35%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,835 交易量
32%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 交易量
5%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 交易量
5%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 交易量
3%
4.0%+
$561 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data, revised higher to 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% annualized, reflected resilient net exports and firmer government spending, yet private consumption remained essentially flat while business investment stayed weak. Analyst surveys in mid-September now center Q3 forecasts near 0.25% annualized, citing softening domestic demand, elevated energy import costs, and the Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% that signals a shift toward containing inflation overshoots above the 2% target. Real wage gains and AI-related external demand provide some offset, but the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 0–1.6% annualized underscore uncertainty over whether consumption and capex can sustain momentum into the final quarter before the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
交易量
$27,444结束日期
2026-11-16市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETThis market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data, revised higher to 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% annualized, reflected resilient net exports and firmer government spending, yet private consumption remained essentially flat while business investment stayed weak. Analyst surveys in mid-September now center Q3 forecasts near 0.25% annualized, citing softening domestic demand, elevated energy import costs, and the Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% that signals a shift toward containing inflation overshoots above the 2% target. Real wage gains and AI-related external demand provide some offset, but the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 0–1.6% annualized underscore uncertainty over whether consumption and capex can sustain momentum into the final quarter before the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$27,444结束日期
2026-11-16市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETRecent Q2 2026 GDP data, revised higher to 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% annualized, reflected resilient net exports and firmer government spending, yet private consumption remained essentially flat while business investment stayed weak. Analyst surveys in mid-September now center Q3 forecasts near 0.25% annualized, citing softening domestic demand, elevated energy import costs, and the Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% that signals a shift toward containing inflation overshoots above the 2% target. Real wage gains and AI-related external demand provide some offset, but the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 0–1.6% annualized underscore uncertainty over whether consumption and capex can sustain momentum into the final quarter before the November preliminary release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题