China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% band highest at 56% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that subdued domestic demand will keep the print near Q2’s 4.3% outcome. Weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property activity through August have offset resilient exports, which rose 25% year-over-year in the latest reading on strong high-tech and AI-related shipments. Recent CPI and PPI rebounds to 0.8% and 3.8% respectively signal modest price support but do not yet indicate broad demand recovery. Incremental fiscal measures and potential modest rate cuts remain the key swing factors ahead of the mid-October release, with leading indicators pointing to continued K-shaped divergence between external and domestic momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 24%
4.0-4.3% 17.8%
3.7-4.0% <1%
$35,388 交易量
$35,388 交易量
2026-10-19
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
1%
4.0-4.3%
18%
4.3-4.6%
55%
4.6-4.9%
24%
4.9-5.2%
<1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 24%
4.0-4.3% 17.8%
3.7-4.0% <1%
$35,388 交易量
$35,388 交易量
2026-10-19
<3.4%
$1,362 交易量
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 交易量
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,491 交易量
1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,574 交易量
18%
4.3-4.6%
$13,614 交易量
55%
4.6-4.9%
$9,062 交易量
24%
4.9-5.2%
$3,623 交易量
<1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,537 交易量
<1%
5.5%+
$1,432 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% band highest at 56% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that subdued domestic demand will keep the print near Q2’s 4.3% outcome. Weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property activity through August have offset resilient exports, which rose 25% year-over-year in the latest reading on strong high-tech and AI-related shipments. Recent CPI and PPI rebounds to 0.8% and 3.8% respectively signal modest price support but do not yet indicate broad demand recovery. Incremental fiscal measures and potential modest rate cuts remain the key swing factors ahead of the mid-October release, with leading indicators pointing to continued K-shaped divergence between external and domestic momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
交易量
$35,388结束日期
2026-10-20市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETThis market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% band highest at 56% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that subdued domestic demand will keep the print near Q2’s 4.3% outcome. Weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property activity through August have offset resilient exports, which rose 25% year-over-year in the latest reading on strong high-tech and AI-related shipments. Recent CPI and PPI rebounds to 0.8% and 3.8% respectively signal modest price support but do not yet indicate broad demand recovery. Incremental fiscal measures and potential modest rate cuts remain the key swing factors ahead of the mid-October release, with leading indicators pointing to continued K-shaped divergence between external and domestic momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$35,388结束日期
2026-10-20市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3–4.6% band highest at 56% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that subdued domestic demand will keep the print near Q2’s 4.3% outcome. Weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property activity through August have offset resilient exports, which rose 25% year-over-year in the latest reading on strong high-tech and AI-related shipments. Recent CPI and PPI rebounds to 0.8% and 3.8% respectively signal modest price support but do not yet indicate broad demand recovery. Incremental fiscal measures and potential modest rate cuts remain the key swing factors ahead of the mid-October release, with leading indicators pointing to continued K-shaped divergence between external and domestic momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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