Japan’s 10-year JGB yield has traded near or above 3.00% in recent sessions, the highest levels since 1996, anchoring the 67.3% market-implied probability for a year-end 2026 print at or above that threshold. Persistent core inflation near the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, combined with yen weakness and imported price pressures, has reinforced expectations for continued policy normalization after the policy rate reached 1.25%. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi have raised debt-servicing concerns, prompting the Ministry of Finance to lift its internal rate assumptions and adding upward pressure on long-term yields. Global Treasury repricing and higher oil prices have further supported the move. With the December 2026 resolution only months away, traders are focused on upcoming BOJ communications and CPI releases that could alter the terminal rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.9%
2.4-2.6% 7.0%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 交易量
$29,873 交易量
2026-12-30
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
18%
3.0%+
67%
3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.9%
2.4-2.6% 7.0%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 交易量
$29,873 交易量
2026-12-30
<2.0%
$1,370 交易量
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 交易量
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 交易量
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 交易量
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 交易量
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 交易量
18%
3.0%+
$11,705 交易量
67%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year JGB yield has traded near or above 3.00% in recent sessions, the highest levels since 1996, anchoring the 67.3% market-implied probability for a year-end 2026 print at or above that threshold. Persistent core inflation near the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, combined with yen weakness and imported price pressures, has reinforced expectations for continued policy normalization after the policy rate reached 1.25%. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi have raised debt-servicing concerns, prompting the Ministry of Finance to lift its internal rate assumptions and adding upward pressure on long-term yields. Global Treasury repricing and higher oil prices have further supported the move. With the December 2026 resolution only months away, traders are focused on upcoming BOJ communications and CPI releases that could alter the terminal rate path.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
市场开放时间： Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$29,873结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year JGB yield has traded near or above 3.00% in recent sessions, the highest levels since 1996, anchoring the 67.3% market-implied probability for a year-end 2026 print at or above that threshold. Persistent core inflation near the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, combined with yen weakness and imported price pressures, has reinforced expectations for continued policy normalization after the policy rate reached 1.25%. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi have raised debt-servicing concerns, prompting the Ministry of Finance to lift its internal rate assumptions and adding upward pressure on long-term yields. Global Treasury repricing and higher oil prices have further supported the move. With the December 2026 resolution only months away, traders are focused on upcoming BOJ communications and CPI releases that could alter the terminal rate path.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
交易量
$29,873结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETJapan’s 10-year JGB yield has traded near or above 3.00% in recent sessions, the highest levels since 1996, anchoring the 67.3% market-implied probability for a year-end 2026 print at or above that threshold. Persistent core inflation near the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, combined with yen weakness and imported price pressures, has reinforced expectations for continued policy normalization after the policy rate reached 1.25%. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi have raised debt-servicing concerns, prompting the Ministry of Finance to lift its internal rate assumptions and adding upward pressure on long-term yields. Global Treasury repricing and higher oil prices have further supported the move. With the December 2026 resolution only months away, traders are focused on upcoming BOJ communications and CPI releases that could alter the terminal rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题