Traders assign a 98.1% probability to “No” for a human moon landing in 2026 because NASA’s Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV, targeted for 2028. Artemis III, now scheduled for late 2027, will instead conduct low-Earth-orbit rendezvous and docking tests between Orion and test articles of SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System and Blue Origin’s Blue Moon. Starship remains in iterative flight testing with no crewed lunar variant ready, while SLS/Orion hardware and regulatory approvals cannot support a 2026 surface mission. Uncrewed Starship lunar attempts may occur late this year, but they do not involve humans. Realistic variables such as further technical delays or funding shifts could push the 2028 date later, yet none can compress the required development, integration, and safety certification into the remaining months of 2026.