No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 through mid-September, with USGS data showing a maximum of 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia. This positions the 74.5% implied probability on 7.9 or below as the leading outcome, consistent with the roughly one annual 8+ event on average worldwide and the absence of recent great quakes in major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity remains dominated by moderate events below 6.5, reflecting typical intraslab and crustal patterns monitored by the USGS. With three-plus months remaining, traders weigh the low historical frequency of late-year magnitude 8+ events against the potential for rapid intensification along the Pacific Ring of Fire before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年最高地震震级？
2026年最高地震震级？
7.9或以下 75%
8.0–8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 8.1%
8.6–8.7 3.8%
最新
最新
2027-01-03
7.9或以下
75%
8.0–8.1
12%
8.2 – 8.3
8%
8.4 – 8.5
2%
8.6–8.7
4%
8.8 – 8.9
1%
9.0或以上
3%
7.9或以下 75%
8.0–8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 8.1%
8.6–8.7 3.8%
最新
最新
2027-01-03
7.9或以下
$2,445 交易量
75%
8.0–8.1
$562 交易量
12%
8.2 – 8.3
$782 交易量
8%
8.4 – 8.5
$206 交易量
2%
8.6–8.7
$311 交易量
4%
8.8 – 8.9
$208 交易量
1%
9.0或以上
$166 交易量
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 through mid-September, with USGS data showing a maximum of 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia. This positions the 74.5% implied probability on 7.9 or below as the leading outcome, consistent with the roughly one annual 8+ event on average worldwide and the absence of recent great quakes in major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity remains dominated by moderate events below 6.5, reflecting typical intraslab and crustal patterns monitored by the USGS. With three-plus months remaining, traders weigh the low historical frequency of late-year magnitude 8+ events against the potential for rapid intensification along the Pacific Ring of Fire before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
交易量
$4,679结束日期
2027-01-04市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 through mid-September, with USGS data showing a maximum of 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia. This positions the 74.5% implied probability on 7.9 or below as the leading outcome, consistent with the roughly one annual 8+ event on average worldwide and the absence of recent great quakes in major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity remains dominated by moderate events below 6.5, reflecting typical intraslab and crustal patterns monitored by the USGS. With three-plus months remaining, traders weigh the low historical frequency of late-year magnitude 8+ events against the potential for rapid intensification along the Pacific Ring of Fire before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$4,679结束日期
2027-01-04市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNo magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 through mid-September, with USGS data showing a maximum of 7.8 in the Philippines and Indonesia. This positions the 74.5% implied probability on 7.9 or below as the leading outcome, consistent with the roughly one annual 8+ event on average worldwide and the absence of recent great quakes in major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity remains dominated by moderate events below 6.5, reflecting typical intraslab and crustal patterns monitored by the USGS. With three-plus months remaining, traders weigh the low historical frequency of late-year magnitude 8+ events against the potential for rapid intensification along the Pacific Ring of Fire before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题