**Trader consensus in the Hong Kong September precipitation market strongly favors totals below the 321 mm climatological mean, with the <275 mm bin leading at 73.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects early-month conditions under persistent northeast monsoon flow, which has delivered mostly fine weather with only isolated showers through mid-September. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate continued dry-to-moderate conditions into the coming week, limiting accumulation despite typical seasonal risks from tropical systems. Historical variability is high, driven by cyclone frequency and steering patterns over the northern South China Sea, yet current model runs show limited development potential near the territory. Traders are weighting the subdued start and subdued near-term outlook heavily, while watching for any late-month low-pressure systems or revised intensity forecasts that could alter totals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于九月香港降水量？
九月香港降水量？
<275mm 74%
275-300mm 14%
300-325mm 7.5%
550mm+ 6.0%
$13,749 交易量
$13,749 交易量
2026-09-30
<275mm
74%
275-300mm
14%
300-325mm
8%
325-350mm
4%
350-375mm
3%
375-400mm
3%
400-450mm
3%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
2%
550mm+
6%
<275mm 74%
275-300mm 14%
300-325mm 7.5%
550mm+ 6.0%
$13,749 交易量
$13,749 交易量
2026-09-30
<275mm
$11,104 交易量
74%
275-300mm
$400 交易量
14%
300-325mm
$458 交易量
8%
325-350mm
$333 交易量
4%
350-375mm
$220 交易量
3%
375-400mm
$239 交易量
3%
400-450mm
$235 交易量
3%
450-500mm
$260 交易量
1%
500-550mm
$241 交易量
2%
550mm+
$258 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus in the Hong Kong September precipitation market strongly favors totals below the 321 mm climatological mean, with the <275 mm bin leading at 73.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects early-month conditions under persistent northeast monsoon flow, which has delivered mostly fine weather with only isolated showers through mid-September. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate continued dry-to-moderate conditions into the coming week, limiting accumulation despite typical seasonal risks from tropical systems. Historical variability is high, driven by cyclone frequency and steering patterns over the northern South China Sea, yet current model runs show limited development potential near the territory. Traders are weighting the subdued start and subdued near-term outlook heavily, while watching for any late-month low-pressure systems or revised intensity forecasts that could alter totals.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
交易量
$13,749结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus in the Hong Kong September precipitation market strongly favors totals below the 321 mm climatological mean, with the <275 mm bin leading at 73.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects early-month conditions under persistent northeast monsoon flow, which has delivered mostly fine weather with only isolated showers through mid-September. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate continued dry-to-moderate conditions into the coming week, limiting accumulation despite typical seasonal risks from tropical systems. Historical variability is high, driven by cyclone frequency and steering patterns over the northern South China Sea, yet current model runs show limited development potential near the territory. Traders are weighting the subdued start and subdued near-term outlook heavily, while watching for any late-month low-pressure systems or revised intensity forecasts that could alter totals.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$13,749结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET**Trader consensus in the Hong Kong September precipitation market strongly favors totals below the 321 mm climatological mean, with the <275 mm bin leading at 73.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects early-month conditions under persistent northeast monsoon flow, which has delivered mostly fine weather with only isolated showers through mid-September. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate continued dry-to-moderate conditions into the coming week, limiting accumulation despite typical seasonal risks from tropical systems. Historical variability is high, driven by cyclone frequency and steering patterns over the northern South China Sea, yet current model runs show limited development potential near the territory. Traders are weighting the subdued start and subdued near-term outlook heavily, while watching for any late-month low-pressure systems or revised intensity forecasts that could alter totals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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