Recent observational data and attribution studies highlight how climate-driven glacier retreat and permafrost thaw contributed to the August 26 glacier collapse on Langtang Lirung, triggering the deadly Nepal-Tibet flash flood that killed over 1,400 and left thousands missing. Despite this and other 2026 events such as the Venezuela earthquakes and widespread heatwaves, current atmospheric conditions, ENSO monitoring, and seasonal forecasts from agencies like NOAA point to reduced near-term risks for additional high-impact events through year-end. Model consensus and historical baselines for late-year activity support trader consensus around the 79.5% implied probability for “No,” with upcoming updates from monitoring bodies likely to refine these assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
21% 概率
$246,803 交易量
$246,803 交易量
2026-12-31
是
21% 概率
$246,803 交易量
$246,803 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent observational data and attribution studies highlight how climate-driven glacier retreat and permafrost thaw contributed to the August 26 glacier collapse on Langtang Lirung, triggering the deadly Nepal-Tibet flash flood that killed over 1,400 and left thousands missing. Despite this and other 2026 events such as the Venezuela earthquakes and widespread heatwaves, current atmospheric conditions, ENSO monitoring, and seasonal forecasts from agencies like NOAA point to reduced near-term risks for additional high-impact events through year-end. Model consensus and historical baselines for late-year activity support trader consensus around the 79.5% implied probability for “No,” with upcoming updates from monitoring bodies likely to refine these assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$246,803结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent observational data and attribution studies highlight how climate-driven glacier retreat and permafrost thaw contributed to the August 26 glacier collapse on Langtang Lirung, triggering the deadly Nepal-Tibet flash flood that killed over 1,400 and left thousands missing. Despite this and other 2026 events such as the Venezuela earthquakes and widespread heatwaves, current atmospheric conditions, ENSO monitoring, and seasonal forecasts from agencies like NOAA point to reduced near-term risks for additional high-impact events through year-end. Model consensus and historical baselines for late-year activity support trader consensus around the 79.5% implied probability for “No,” with upcoming updates from monitoring bodies likely to refine these assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$246,803结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRecent observational data and attribution studies highlight how climate-driven glacier retreat and permafrost thaw contributed to the August 26 glacier collapse on Langtang Lirung, triggering the deadly Nepal-Tibet flash flood that killed over 1,400 and left thousands missing. Despite this and other 2026 events such as the Venezuela earthquakes and widespread heatwaves, current atmospheric conditions, ENSO monitoring, and seasonal forecasts from agencies like NOAA point to reduced near-term risks for additional high-impact events through year-end. Model consensus and historical baselines for late-year activity support trader consensus around the 79.5% implied probability for “No,” with upcoming updates from monitoring bodies likely to refine these assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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