Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月1日、2日或3日有记录以来最热？
2026年9月1日、2日或3日有记录以来最热？
第二热 82%
有记录以来最热 13%
第3热 7.0%
第4位或更低 6.3%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
有记录以来最热
13%
第二热
86%
第3热
7%
第4位或更低
6%
第二热 82%
有记录以来最热 13%
第3热 7.0%
第4位或更低 6.3%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
有记录以来最热
$349 交易量
13%
第二热
$1 交易量
86%
第3热
$191 交易量
7%
第4位或更低
$250 交易量
6%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
交易量
$791结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$791结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRecent observations and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 as likely the second-warmest September on record, with global mean temperatures tracking near or slightly below the 2023 benchmark of 16.38 °C while exceeding prior years. A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and projected to peak above +3.5 °C, supplies additional warmth through atmospheric teleconnections, though the full seasonal lag means peak impacts may extend into late 2026 and 2027. Current ECMWF runs and preliminary analyses indicate the month is running roughly +0.94 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline, inside model uncertainty ranges that favor a top-two finish over a new record. Upcoming final ERA5 and other agency datasets will determine exact ranking against 2023 and 2024.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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